News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.10% France 40: -0.12% FTSE 100: -0.15% US 500: -0.21% Wall Street: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/11CO324Vg7
  • May consumer inflation expectations for the medium term climb to 4% from 3.4% in April.Get your market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/Dsa5Sxn0fU https://t.co/oGStoYQ8qq
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Business Confidence (JUN) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 58.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-14
  • Technical Levels: #Dollar, #Sterling, #Loonie, #Gold, #Bitcoin, #Oil and more! (Webinar Archive) - https://t.co/0ztuS6u8z7
  • Poll: With volatility deflating across the financial system, left to wonder what phase of the market cycle we are in currently. What stage do you think we are in right now? (https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/02/05/Market-cycle-phases.html)
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.28% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.19% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rKGivnA7az
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.37% France 40: 0.32% Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.19% Wall Street: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/QYj0laANXU
  • ECB's Villeroy says stimulus will be at least as prolonged as Fed's
  • This week opens to anticipation for Wednesday's FOMC decision, but conditions may charge short-term volatility. DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter discuss for Monday! https://t.co/iOgZWpiFE5
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.92% Silver: 0.11% Gold: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lDnyXGE5LI
Gold Prices Tumble as Fed Rate Hike Speculation Heats Up Anew

Gold Prices Tumble as Fed Rate Hike Speculation Heats Up Anew

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices back on the defensive as Fed rate hike bets build anew
  • Crude oil prices rise as Iraqi, Kurdish forces disrupt Kirkuk output
  • API inventory flow statistics headline otherwise bare data docket

Gold prices turned lower as Fed rate hike expectations began to swell anew after a pause last week. The priced-in probability of another increase before the calendar turns to 2018 rose to 80.2 percent, the highest in nearly two years. The US Dollar dutifully rose alongside front-end Treasury bond yields, undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets exemplified by the yellow metal.

A clear-cut catalyst is not obvious from here, at least in the near term. The economic calendar is relatively tame, the Fed-speak schedule is uneventful and US stock index futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, pointing to neutral sentiment trends. A similarly bare offering hasn’t stopped markets from retracing last week’s moves in the past 24 hours however, so more of the same may be in store.

Crude oil prices rose as government forces clashed with Kurdish fighters in Iraq’s oil-rich Kirkuk province, shuttering two fields. Meanwhile, the EIA Drilling Productivity Report delivered a downgrade of October’s shale oil output forecast, from 6.08 to 6.04 million barrels per day. API weekly inventory flow data is now in focus. For context, the analogous set of official EIA data is seen showing a 3.84 million barrel draw.

What are the fundamental forces shaping crude oil price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Near-term support is at 1291.92, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that targeting the 23.6% level at 1283.22. Alternatively, break above the October 16 high at 1306.04 sees the next upside barrier at 1320.56, the 61.8% Fib retracement.

Gold Prices Tumble as Fed Rate Hike Speculation Heats Up Anew

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices look poised to challenge resistance in the 52.83-53.22 area (September 28 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). A daily close above that exposes the 50% level at 54.49. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 51.65 targets the 14.6% expansion at 50.68.

Gold Prices Tumble as Fed Rate Hike Speculation Heats Up Anew

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES