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Talking Points:

Crude oil prices corrected higher, shrugging off a cocktail of negativity that failed to surprise investors enough to generate fresh selling after prices hit a two-week low (as expected). Baker Hughes rig count data as well as CFTC statistics on speculative positioning in oil futures are on tap ahead, but these are rarely significant market movers. That may allow for a digestive pause into the week-end.

Gold prices fell to a two-month low as Fed rate hike speculation gained momentum anew before September’s much-anticipated US jobs report is released. Analysts project a slowdown in payrolls growth but that need not derail FOMC officials angling to boost the baseline lending rate again before year-end. An outcome that keeps this prospect intact is likely to boost yields and the US Dollar, hurting the metal further.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices turned lower anew after a short-lived pause. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1261.20 paves the way for a challenge of the 38.2% threshold at 1248.15. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 1269.25 – now recast as resistance – exposes the October 4 high at 1282.30 once again.

Crude Oil Prices Retake $50 Level, Gold May Fall on US Jobs Data

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices managed to establish a foothold back above the $50/barrel figure. From here, a daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 51.32 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% level at 52.29. Alternatively, a reversal below the October 4 low at 49.75 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 48.72.

Crude Oil Prices Retake $50 Level, Gold May Fall on US Jobs Data

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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