News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.38% France 40: -0.47% US 500: -0.74% FTSE 100: -0.95% Germany 30: -1.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qssc8NV6Ey
  • Binance announcement - cutting back futures and derivatives offerings in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands - weighing on crypto prices. #btc #eth #ltc @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/auRNvG7CD4
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/FCKcgAxFkR
  • China National Health Commission says will resolutely cope with Covid-19 outbreak in Nanjing City and related infections
  • 💶 Inflation Rate MoM Flash (JUL) Actual: -0.1% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (JUL) Actual: 1.8% Expected: 1.7% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JUL) Actual: 2.2% Expected: 2% Previous: 1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • 💶 Unemployment Rate (JUN) Actual: 7.7% Expected: 7.9% Previous: 8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • 💶 Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JUL) Actual: 0.7% Expected: 0.8% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
  • 💶 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Actual: 2% Expected: 1.5% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-07-30
Gold Prices May Fall as Yellen Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium

Gold Prices May Fall as Yellen Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Commodities mark time as all eyes turn to Jackson Hole symposium
  • Gold prices may fall if Fed’s Yellen hints QT to begin in September
  • Crude oil prices vulnerable if hawkish Fed stance boosts US Dollar

Commodity prices remain locked in familiar ranges as financial markets await direction cues from the Fed’s annual policy symposium underway in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A much-anticipated speech from Chair Janet Yellen takes top billing.

Traders are looking for comments signaling the imminent start so-called “quantitative tightening” (QT) – the unwinding of the US central bank’s bloated post-crisis balance sheet – as well as rhetoric shaping the probability of another rate hike before the end of the year.

Minutes from July’s FOMC meeting revealed that policymakersexpect to begin balance sheet reduction at “an upcoming meeting”. If Yellen appears to signal this will happen in September, that will leave room for a hike in December, assuming the “idiosyncratic” forces holding down inflation fade as expected.

Gold prices are likely to suffer in this scenario as the prospect of higher rates undermines the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices may likewise suffer as bets on a steeper tightening cycle boost the US Dollar, applying de-facto pressure to assets denominated in terms of the greenback.

What is the #1 mistake that traders make, and how can you fix it? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain locked in a narrow band below resistance in the 1295.46-1300.46 area (double top, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). From here, a daily close below the 1284.75-78.22 area (23.6% Fib retracement, trend line) targets the 38.2% level at 1264.23. Alternatively, a breach of resistance exposes the 50% expansion at 1310.74.

Gold Prices May Fall as Yellen Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time in a now-familiar range above the $46/barrel figure. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 46.62 exposes the 50% level at 45.46. Alternatively, a push above 48.76 (former support shelf, trend line) opens the door for a retest of the August 1 high at 50.40.

Gold Prices May Fall as Yellen Speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES