We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.1078 S2: 1.1152 S1: 1.1193 R1: 1.1267 R2: 1.13 R3: 1.1374 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/MCdNLAjJpu
  • Has the ECB been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/Znozwxgcak
  • Texas COVID-19 cases increase at 2.4%, same as prior 7-day average - BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.91% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.64% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.59% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/j3MpbrNtG4
  • RT @SecPompeo: I applaud @Nasdaq’s actions to require all listed firms comply with the same auditing and inspection rules, especially as re…
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.88% Silver: 0.43% Oil - US Crude: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/s7unTde0G5
  • The #FTSE 100 surged to its highest level since early June on Wednesday after the equity index pierced a longstanding technical barrier around 6,200. Get your #FTSE market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/uFaYFaPGz2 https://t.co/mNnlGDksJn
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.30%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kZcqWecOdG
  • The $EURUSD's climb continues at an exceptional pace. It is on course for the biggest three-week rally since May 2015 (the bottoming after the 2014 collapse) https://t.co/AbDLQ07D95
Gold Prices May Fall Further on US Retail Sales Report

Gold Prices May Fall Further on US Retail Sales Report

2017-08-15 01:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices drop as US officials rush to de-escalate North Korea tensions
  • Upbeat US retail sales data may add to losses on firming Fed rate hike bets
  • Crude oil price fall on signs Chinese demand slowing, US output swelling

Gold prices turned lower amid a recovery in risk appetite. Investors’ chipper mood reflected easing geopolitical concerns after senior US officials – including the heads of State and Defense departments as well as the national security advisor and the Director of the CIA – sought to de-escalate tensions between the US and North Korea following last week’s fiery rhetoric.

Treasury bond yields rose alongside stock prices, sapping demand for non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal. Easing fears about politically-inspired instability were also read as increasing the probability of further Fed tightening. The implied 2017 rate hike path steepened and the US Dollar duly rose, undermining the relative appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

Crude oil prices dropped after China said oil refining dropped 4.4 percent in July, marking the largest fall since 2014, while EIA projected that US shale output will hit an all-time high of 6.15 million barrels per day in September. Signs of ebbing demand from the world’s largest crude consumer and swelling output from its most significant swing supplier seemingly dented prospects for reducing a global supply glut.

Looking ahead, US retail sales data may compound gold selling pressure if the numbers echo a broad improvement in economic data outcomes since mid-June, boosting Fed stimulus withdrawal bets. Meanwhile, crude oil will look to the weekly set of API inventory flow figures for direction. By way of context, official EIA statistics due Wednesday are seen showing a 3.5 million barrel drawdown

Have a question about the trading commodities? Sign up for a trading Q&A webinar and ask it live!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below double top resistance in the 1293.90-95.46 area (61.8% Fibonacci expansion, double top), hinting a turn lower may be ahead. A daily close below the 14.6% Fib retracement at 1279.36 exposes the 23.6% level at 1271.53. Alternatively, a push above 1295.46 targets the 76.4% expansion at 1303.98.

Gold Prices May Fall Further on US Retail Sales Report

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices appear to have broken rising trend line support set from the June swing low, hinting a two-month uptrend has been overturned. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 47.30 targets the 38.2% level at 45.38. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 48.48 opens the door for a retest of the August 1 high at 50.40.

Gold Prices May Fall Further on US Retail Sales Report

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.