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Gold Prices May Ignore ISM Survey, Fed-Speak as Jobs Data Nears

Gold Prices May Ignore ISM Survey, Fed-Speak as Jobs Data Nears

2017-08-03 04:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Gold prices mark time as markets look ahead to US employment data
  • Crude oil prices edge up as EIA reports another inventory drawdown
  • Are commodities matching DailyFX bets so far in Q3? Find out here

Gold prices stalled as familiar rhetoric from Fed officials and mixed signals in July’s ADP private-sector employment data left rate hike speculation rudderless. A disappointing headline print was counterbalanced by an upgrade of June’s result, producing a net improvement of 21k relative to baseline forecasts.

From here, the service-sectorISM survey as well as factory and durable goods orders numbers are on tap. Upbeat results echoing broad improvement in US news-flow since mid-June may weigh against the yellow metal but lasting follow-through might have to wait for Friday’s high-profile payrolls report.

On the Fed-speak front, St. Louis and Minneapolis branch presidents James Bullard and Neel Kashkari are due to speak. While their remarks will inform traders’ overall sense of the FOMC’s thinking, it seems unlikely that a comment potent enough to produce immediate fireworks will emerge.

Crude oil prices rose as EIA inventory data showed stockpiles shed 1.53 million barrels last week. While this was smaller than the 3.1 million draw expected, traders appeared to be relieved after API predicted a surprise build yesterday. A lull in top-tier event risk might make for consolidation in the near term.

Need help translating commodity market news into a strategy? Check out our trading guide!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain at a standstill below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1271.20. Breaking above this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 1291.65-95.46 area (50% level, double top). Alternatively, a reversal below inflection point support at 1260.85 opens the door for a retest of the 23.6% Fib at 1245.91.

Gold Prices May Ignore ISM Survey, Fed-Speak as Jobs Data Nears

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices managed a bounce from support at 48.65, the 50%Fibonacci retracement. From here, a daily close above the 61.8%levelat 50.19 exposes the 76.4% Fib at 52.11. Alternatively, a turn below support paves the way for another challenge of the 47.10-29 area (38.2% retracement, July 4 high).

Gold Prices May Ignore ISM Survey, Fed-Speak as Jobs Data Nears

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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