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Crude Oil Price May Fall as EIA Monthly Report Highlights Glut

Crude Oil Price May Fall as EIA Monthly Report Highlights Glut

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

A lull in pertinent news-flow allowed space for crude oil prices to consolidate having rebounded to a two-week high. The respite may prove short-lived as the EIAmonthly report on output and supply trends is released. A turn lower will probably be in the cards if the release stokes speculation that swelling swing supply will offset OPEC-led efforts to trim output.

Gold prices are looking to the release of the Fed’s favorite PCE gauge of US inflation. That is expected to show that core price growth slowed to a rate of 1.4 percent on-year in May, the weakest in 17 months. A soft print echoing the steady stream of disappointing data outcomes in recent months may cool Fed rate hike speculation, boosting the yellow metal’s relative appeal.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain in digestion mode after touching a six-week low. Positive RSI divergence hints at ebbing downside pressure and may precede a rebound. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1263.22 exposes the 38.2% level at 1280.05. Alternatively, a move back under support at 1241.20 targets a rising trend line at 1232.38.

Crude Oil Price May Fall as EIA Monthly Report Highlights Glut

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices paused to consolidate gains ahead of resistance at 45.32 (May 4 bottom). A daily close above this barrier exposes 47.12 (March 14 low, channel mid-line). Alternatively, a reversal below 43.79 (May 5 low, channel floor support-turned-resistance) opens the door for a retest of the June 21 lowat 42.03.

Crude Oil Price May Fall as EIA Monthly Report Highlights Glut

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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