News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Continued $USD strength highlights major FX price action https://t.co/09pe1L3DpP
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.45% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.61% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.74% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.76% 🇨🇭CHF: -1.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/oUwSX3EgTk
  • DAX is making its way higher, but the grinding wedge behavior is concerning CAC has been extremely impressive, but a dip could be around the bend. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/rD3sYiWGk4 https://t.co/XtFWWR1zyr
  • RT @FxWestwater: 200-day SMA Fails to Support Ailing Lumber Prices - #LBS1! chart https://t.co/4iOCdiUJMO
  • NY Fed on Juneteenth: - SIFMA not recommending a fixed income market close - US Dollar funding markets expected to be open
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.21% Gold: -2.25% Silver: -4.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MGzFVRbgL7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 82.70%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cRMnz8qMMl
  • SEC: - We will be closed on Friday to observe Juneteenth - Exchanges make their own determinations on operation status - We understand major markets will operate with normal market hours
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.11% Germany 30: 0.10% FTSE 100: 0.06% US 500: -0.01% Wall Street: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/NfOTRstZCn
  • AUD/USD slips below the 200-Day SMA (0.7548) for the first time since June 2020 as fresh forecasts coming out of the Federal Reserve indicate two rate hikes for 2023. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/00AyL5rMXR https://t.co/viwwh2kk90
Gold Prices May Rise as US GDP Downgrade Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold Prices May Rise as US GDP Downgrade Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices may break from consolidation on US GDP revision
  • Soft data might weigh on Fed rate hike bets, push gold upward
  • Crude oil prices lack obvious catalyst after EIA-inspired gains

Gold prices continued to mark time, waiting for a fresh catalyst after briefly spiking to a six-week low earlier in the week. The spotlight now turns to a revised set of US GDP figures, which are expected to confirm prior estimates showing the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter.

Broadly speaking, US economic news-flow has continued to deteriorate relative to consensus forecasts since the GDP print was last updated in late May. That opens the door for the possibility of a downgrade. Such a result may dim prospects for another Fed rate hike in the near term, boosting the yellow metal.

Crude oil prices surged even as EIA inventory flow data showed raw-material stockpiles added 118k barrels last week. That seemingly negative bit of news was foreshadowed in yesterday’s analogous API data and seemed to be shrugged off.

Rather, traders focused on an unexpectedly large gasoline storage outflow of 894k barrels. Consensus forecasts envisioned a far smaller 288.6k draw. This seemed to fuel hopes for firming demand for refined product that may help accelerate absorption of the global crude supply glut.

A lull in relevant event risk may translate into consolidation over the day ahead. Soft US GDP figures may apply a degree of downside pressure but that may be offset by US Dollar weakness amid cooling Fed rate hike speculation. The next major directional push may have to wait for now.

Want to discuss trading crude oil and gold prices with a DailyFX analyst? Join a webinar!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to consolidate after testing a six-week low but positive RSI divergence hints a bounce may be ahead. Near-term resistance is marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1263.22, with a daily close above that targeting the 38.2% level at 1280.05. Alternatively, a reversal below chart inflection point support at 1241.20 clears the way for testing a rising trend line at 1231.74.

Gold Prices May Rise as US GDP Downgrade Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices pushed through key resistance at 43.79 (May 5 low, channel floor support-turned-resistance), opening the door for a challenge of 45.32 (May 4 bottom). A daily close above that exposes 47.12 (March 14 low, channel mid-line). Alternatively, a move back below 43.79 paves the way for a retest of the June 21 lowat 42.03.

Gold Prices May Rise as US GDP Downgrade Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES