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Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • API data, IMF downgrade of US outlook cap crude oil price bounce
  • Gold prices digest after “fat finger” error triggers drop to 6-week low
  • Stock index futures hint at risk aversion, EIA inventory report on tap

The corrective recovery in crude oil prices struggled to make lasting progress as the IMF downgraded its outlook for US economic growth and API said inventories added 851k barrels last week. That amounted to bad news from both the supply and the demand side of the equation.

The spotlight now turns to official EIA inventory flow figures. Those are expected to show raw-material stockpiles shed 2.15 million barrels while 288.6k barrels left gasoline storage. A print closer in line with the API estimate may weigh on prices.

Gold prices steadied after the prior day’s “fat finger” shenanigans. A relatively bland speech from Fed Chair Yellen didn’t inspire a strong reaction but the downside revision in IMF projections for US economic growth offered a bit of an extra boost as near-term rate hike prospects continued to fizzle.

From here, a dollop of second-tier US data seems unlikely to alter Fed policy bets, offering little by way of a directional lead. Sentiment trends may be more potent. Futures tracking top US and European stock benchmarks are pointing lower, meaning risk aversion might trim yields and boost the yellow metal.

Need help turning commodity market news into an actionable strategy? See our trading guide!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISPositive RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum and hints gold prices may bounce after hitting a six-week low. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1263.22 exposes the 38.2% level at 1280.05. Alternatively, a drop below chart inflection point support at 1241.20 targets a rising trend line at 1231.52.

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are attempting another run above resistance at 43.79 (May 5 low, channel floor support-turned-resistance) after conspicuously failing to hold above this level yesterday. A break confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the next upside barrier at 45.32 (May 4 bottom). Critical support is at 42.03 (June 21 low, falling trend line).

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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