We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/4:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/29mp0J5bys
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.03% Gold: -0.17% Silver: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/5vlrajdMNh
  • Over the past 30 days, #NZD, #SEK and the #AUD have been the best performing G10 currencies vs. USD with +1.87%, 1.70% and 1.03% total returns.
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.05% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qf00nTj6Hd
  • LIVE NOW: Join Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.80%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.38%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ajip0jMeD9
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • Tune in to @IlyaSpivak 's #webinar at 10:00 PM ET/3:00 AM GMT for insight on the cross market weekly outlook. Register here: https://t.co/E213bTtq5C https://t.co/EhPTrzvjdH
  • Since late July, the economic news flow from Sweden has been under-performing relative to economists’ expectations however there has been some improvement since early October. -Citi #SEK
  • The #Euro made cautious upside gains, with EUR/USD showing most potential for upside follow-through. EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD may stall at key falling channels as EUR/GBP eyes 2019 lows. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/WTVfgxkpan https://t.co/N2DuyHWPdp
Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

2017-06-28 04:10:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • API data, IMF downgrade of US outlook cap crude oil price bounce
  • Gold prices digest after “fat finger” error triggers drop to 6-week low
  • Stock index futures hint at risk aversion, EIA inventory report on tap

The corrective recovery in crude oil prices struggled to make lasting progress as the IMF downgraded its outlook for US economic growth and API said inventories added 851k barrels last week. That amounted to bad news from both the supply and the demand side of the equation.

The spotlight now turns to official EIA inventory flow figures. Those are expected to show raw-material stockpiles shed 2.15 million barrels while 288.6k barrels left gasoline storage. A print closer in line with the API estimate may weigh on prices.

Gold prices steadied after the prior day’s “fat finger” shenanigans. A relatively bland speech from Fed Chair Yellen didn’t inspire a strong reaction but the downside revision in IMF projections for US economic growth offered a bit of an extra boost as near-term rate hike prospects continued to fizzle.

From here, a dollop of second-tier US data seems unlikely to alter Fed policy bets, offering little by way of a directional lead. Sentiment trends may be more potent. Futures tracking top US and European stock benchmarks are pointing lower, meaning risk aversion might trim yields and boost the yellow metal.

Need help turning commodity market news into an actionable strategy? See our trading guide!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISPositive RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum and hints gold prices may bounce after hitting a six-week low. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1263.22 exposes the 38.2% level at 1280.05. Alternatively, a drop below chart inflection point support at 1241.20 targets a rising trend line at 1231.52.

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are attempting another run above resistance at 43.79 (May 5 low, channel floor support-turned-resistance) after conspicuously failing to hold above this level yesterday. A break confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the next upside barrier at 45.32 (May 4 bottom). Critical support is at 42.03 (June 21 low, falling trend line).

Crude Oil Price Recovery May Unravel on EIA Inventory Data

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.