Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Crude Oil Price Rebound May Be Short-Lived, EIA Data in Focus

Crude Oil Price Rebound May Be Short-Lived, EIA Data in Focus

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices correct higher, snap five-day losing streak
  • EIA inventory data on tap, gasoline vs. crude flows in focus
  • Gold prices surge amid risk aversion, challenge April high

Crude oil prices corrected higher after a week of consecutive losses but the rally stalled after API reported that gasoline inventories added 4.08 million barrels last week. Crude stockpiles shed a comparable 4.62 million barrels, hinting that refiners’ uptake is not being met with end demand. That disappointed hopes for a seasonal pickup coinciding with the US summer “driving season”. Meanwhile, the DOE cut the 2018 WTI forecast from $55.10 to $53.61 and said US output will hit a record above 10m b/d, helping to cap gains.

The spotlight now turns to official EIA inventory figures. Those are expected to show that crude stocks shed 3.14 million barrels last week while gasoline stores were reduced by 275k barrels. Statistics bolstering signs of sluggish demand on display in the API data set may put prices back on the defensive. News-flow from Qatar continues to be an important consideration as markets fret that a rift between it and other major gulf producers including Saudi Arabia may disrupt deliveries or derail OPEC-led output cut efforts.

Gold prices charged higher as risk aversion sent haven-seeking capital into government debt, depressing yields and offering support to non-interest-bearing assets. From here, a lull in top-tier scheduled event risk may translate into consolidation as markets catch a breath before Thursday’s explosive news-flow. The UK will hold a general election, ousted FBI director James Comey will testify in Congress and the ECB will deliver a monetary policy announcement.

Need help turning your ideas about commodities into a strategy? Check out our trading guide.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are testing resistance April’s swing top once again having reversed higher from support above the $1200 figure as expected. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1300.73 targets the 61.8% level at 1321.10.Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 1280.35 exposes the 1256.74-63.87 congestion area anew.

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices corrected higher after testing support at the $47/bbl figure yet again, snapping a five-day losing streak. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 48.17 opens the door for a retest of the May 29 high at 50.26. Alternatively, a push below 47.00 sees the next downside barrier at 45.82, the 61.8% level.

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.