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Crude Oil Prices Ignore Inventory Data as US Exports Hit Record

Crude Oil Prices Ignore Inventory Data as US Exports Hit Record

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil shrugged off well-telegraphed drop in US inventories
  • WTI fell for 3rd straight day as US oil exports rose to record high
  • Gold prices may fall if US jobs numbers stoke Fed rate hike bets

A larger-than-expected drop in US inventories failed to make an impression on crude oil prices, as expected. Stockpiles shed 6.43 million barrels, a draw well in excess of the 3 million barrel outflow predicted by analysts. The outcome was well-telegraphed by previously released API data however, robbing the official EIA release of its market-moving potential.

Rather, the markets focused on rising production in Libya and Nigeria – OPEC countries that are nonetheless exempt from its output cut scheme – as well as the US. Bloomberg reported that the cartel’s collective output jumped by 315k b/d last month while DOE figures showed US exports jumped to 1.3 million b/d last week, the highest on record. Baker Hughes rig count data is next on tap.

Gold prices edged lower as upbeat US economic data offered a lift to the US Dollar, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. ADP reported a forceful recovery in jobs growth and an ISM survey showed manufacturing-sector activity unexpectedly accelerated last month. The spotlight now turns to the official set of US employment figures, with an upbeat result poised to hurt the yellow metal further.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to mark time above resistance-turned-support in the 1256.74-63.87 area. Near-term resistance is at 280.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close above that exposing the 50% level at 1300.73. Alternatively, a push below 1256.74 targets 1241.20.

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices look set to test the $47/bbl figure after falling for a third consecutive day. A daily close below that targets the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 45.82. Alternatively, move back above the 38.2% level at 48.17 exposes the May 29 high at 50.26.

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.