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Gold Prices May Turn Lower on Upbeat FOMC Meeting Minutes

Gold Prices May Turn Lower on Upbeat FOMC Meeting Minutes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Gold prices declined as Treasury bond yields rose alongside the US Dollar, undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets epitomized by the yellow metal. The move came well after the day’s offering of relevant economic data, suggesting it may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of minutes from May’s FOMC policy meeting.

Last week, fear about US political uncertainty flattened the priced-in 2017 rate hike path. However, the Fed was aiming to speed up tightening well before doing so became linked to the Trump administration’s would-be inflationary policies in the minds of investors. A confident tone in the Minutes document may serve as a timely reminder, boosting the greenback and punishing gold further.

Crude oil prices continued to push higher ahead of an OPEC meeting expected to produce a nine-month extension of a cartel-led production cut effort expiring mid-year. A committee of representatives from six producer nations has been charged with weighing up the merits of a 12-month extension but the baseline view continues to favor a program extended through March 2018.

This committee will meet today ahead of a conclave of all OPEC and non-OPEC output cut participants on Thursday and comments from the sidelines of the sit-down may prove market-moving. The official set of EIA inventory flow data is also due to cross the wires. Forecasts point to a 2.08 million barrel draw but an API estimate hinted a smaller outflow of 1.5 million barrels yesterday.

How are our Q2 gold and crude oil forecasts holding up with a month left to go? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to mark time below resistance in the 1256.74-63.87 area, which has acted as both support and resistance over the past three months. A daily close above this barrier exposes a falling trend line capping gains for nearly 11 months, now at 1278.65. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1235.91 targets rising trend support at 1219.71.

Gold Prices May Turn Lower on Upbeat FOMC Meeting Minutes

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive day, with buyers now eyeing resistance at 52.51 marked by the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement. A daily close above that opens the door for a challenge of trend line resistance at 53.14. Alternatively, a reversal below the 61.8%level at 50.85 paves the way for a retest of the 50% Fib at 49.50.

Gold Prices May Turn Lower on Upbeat FOMC Meeting Minutes

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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