Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices extend advance as key OPEC meeting nears
- Gold prices edge up as Treasury bond yields, US Dollar fall
- Fed-speak, US PMI and API oil inventory data now in focus
Crude oil prices scored a fourth consecutive advance, continuing to drift upward as expected as markets await the extension of an OPEC-led production cut scheme due to expire mid-year at a meeting later this week. The weekly API inventory flow report is now in the spotlight. That will set the tone for official EIA data due the following day, where markets expect to see a 2.25 million barrel drawdown.
Gold prices edged higher as the US Dollar declined alongside Treasury bond yields, boosting the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. Looking ahead, improving US PMI data and a steady stream of confident Fed commentary may cap gains but significant trend development one way or another seems unlikely until minutes from May’s FOMC meeting cross the wires on Wednesday.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices continue to digest below resistance in the 1256.74-63.87 area, which has previously acted as both support and resistance since late February. A daily close above that targets a falling trend line at 1279.46. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1235.91 exposes rising trend support at 1219.63.
Chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices narrowly edged above resistance at 50.85, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. From here, a further push above the 76.4% level at 52.51 exposes a falling trend line at 53.12. Alternatively, a turn back below 50.85 – now recast as support – opens the door for a retest of the 50% Fib at 49.50.
Chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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