Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices stall after snapping 5-day losing streak
- API data, EIA outlook update may revive price volatility
- Gold prices mark time as Fed rate hike outlook solidifies
Crude oil prices stalled amid a lull in top-tier news flow. Activity may pick up in the day ahead as API weekly inventory flow data comes across the wires and the EIA updates its short-term energy outlook. These may revive bets on OPEC’s inability to offset swelling swing supply, rebooting selling pressure.
Gold prices also marked time, as expected. Another quiet day is ahead on the US data docket. A slew of speeches of Fed policymakers is also on tap but as with yesterday’s offering of official commentary, the impact on price action may prove minimal however.
Markets already see a June rate hike as nearly certain. The priced-in probability of an increase implied in Fed Funds futures is 100 percent. Given the FOMC’s dismissive stance on the first-quarter slowdown in US economic growth, it seems unlikely that anything said now will materially alter baseline expectations.
On balance, this hints that consolidation may continue. With that said, an unforeseen swing in overall sentiment remains an ever-present risk. A souring market mood may weigh on benchmark yields as bonds rise, boosting gold’s relative appeal. An upbeat disposition may have the opposite effect.
What is most important for gold and crude oil price trends through mid-year? See our forecasts here !
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices are marking time after sliding to a two-month low. A daily close blow inflection point support at 1218.90 opens the door for challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1199.07. Alternatively, a turn back above support-turned-resistance at 1241.50 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% level at 1258.62.
Chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices are waiting for new direction cues having snapped a five-day losing streak. A move below support marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracementat 45.33 sees the next downside barrier at 43.00, the 76.4% level. Alternatively, a daily close above the 50% Fib at 47.22 exposes 49.11 (38.2% rettracement, trend line support-turned-resistance) anew.
Chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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