News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/ITdDUGoAL0
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/eF0XS79LgK
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/gaYbbaTnpb
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/HCvzbjEkr6
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
Gold Prices May Rise as Soft US GDP Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold Prices May Rise as Soft US GDP Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices may rebound as Q1 US GDP report disappoints
  • Crude oil price dip to 1-month low fails to have staying power
  • EIA supply data, rig count figures may offset OPEC optimism

Gold prices are adrift in familiar territory, mirroring consolidation in the US Dollar and the priced-in 2017 rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures. The spotlight now turns to first-quarter US GDP figures. Consensus forecasts point to an annualized gain of 1 percent, a steep slowdown from the 2.1 percent recorded in the three months through December 2016.

A closely-watched forecast of US growth from the Atlanta Fed suggests the result may be more disappointing still. Its GDPNow model projects performance that is materially worse than even the low end of market estimates. Meanwhile, data from Citigroup shows US economic news-flow underperforming relative to consensus bets by a widening margin recently, bolstering the case for a downside surprise.

Soft GDP data may weigh against Fed rate hike bets. While the markets are not seriously contemplating a hike next month, the probability of one in June is priced in at nearly 70 percent. With confidence in a potent fiscal boost receding, the markets may conclude that a significant dip growth will delay tightening at least until the second half of the year, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including gold.

Crude oil prices sank after news that Libya restarted production at the Shahara field, the country’s largest, and plans to bring the Waha field online by mid-June. Losses were short-lived however as markets weighed up conflicting cues from the International Oil Summit in Paris. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo talked up progress on draining inventories and predicted a balanced market later this year.

Another batch of statistics showing the relentless swell in swing production may revive selling pressure however. Taken together,EIA monthly supply figures and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count report tracking the number of active US extraction sites may serve as a potent reminder of the cartel’s diminishing influence as swing production grows.

Will the latest crude oil and gold price moves continue through mid-year? See our forecasts here.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are waiting for fresh direction cues having slid to a two-week low after topping near the $1300/oz threshold (as expected). From here, a daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1258.62 targets the 1235.91-41.50 area (October 7 2016 low, 23.6% level). Alternatively, a push above falling trend line resistance at 1287.01 exposes the 295.46-1308.00 region (April 17 high, support-turned-resistance).

Gold Prices May Rise as Soft US GDP Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices dipped to the lowest level in a month but failed to secure a break below trend line support set from August 2016. Confirmation of a breach below the 48.74-85 area (trend line, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion) on a daily closing basis exposes the 47.08-69 zone (March 22 low, 76.4% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib at 49.78 opens the door for a retest of 50.71, the 38.2% expansion.

Gold Prices May Rise as Soft US GDP Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES