We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
  • What tools does the ECB have left to stimulate the Eurozone? Where is the #Euro heading? Find out from Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast hosted by @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DXlDH5Cp9e
  • The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as #OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/llGq8yPFH4 #OOTT https://t.co/1OCVOIrK98
  • Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your gold technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ovGheRg4MQ https://t.co/ZEQSYktj0w
  • What is your #tradingstyle? Take the quiz and let us know: https://t.co/LPBOcS0Vtd https://t.co/l6FvtcADEH
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/dnrAMFK4U2
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
Gold Prices May Resume Advance on French Election Jitters

Gold Prices May Resume Advance on French Election Jitters

2017-04-18 01:09:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices retreat from 5-month high as Fed rate hike bets stabilize
  • US Dollar gains put de-facto downward pressure on crude oil prices
  • Worries about French election may sour market-wide risk sentiment

A worried tone at the open of the trading week proved fleeting as Wall Street returned online after the Easter holiday. Gold prices reversed from intraday gains as recovering sentiment weighed against Treasury bonds and bid up yields, boosting the US Dollar along the way. Not surprisingly, this undermined support for non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets.

Tellingly, financials led US shares upward. An index tracking the sector’s representation within the S&P 500 closely parallels the 2017 rate hike outlook implied in Fed Funds futures. This speaks to expectations of continued tightening even amid first-quarter slowdown fears, although the hawks’ exuberance has waned somewhat. The probability of a June hike is 50.2 percent now, down from 63.2 percent last week.

Crude oil prices seemed to get caught up in macro-level capital flows, with the USD-denominated Brent and WTI benchmarks falling as the greenback found a lifeline. The monthly EIA Drilling Productivity report may have compounded downward pressure. It said US shale output will hit 5.2 b/d in May, the highest since November 2015, and upgraded its April forecast to 5.1 b/d from 4.96 b/d projected previously.

The data docket is relatively quiet from here, with API inventory figures at the forefront. Familiarly hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Esther George should not be particularly surprising and so might pass with little fanfare. On balance, that is likely to keep broad-based sentiment trends in control, particularly as market-wide liquidity levels rebuild with the return of European participation.

Worries about the French presidential election may sour sentiment anew. First-round voting begins on April 23 and leading candidates are clustered near 20 percent in the polls, making for unusually high uncertainty about who will make it into the final face-to-face contest. This fuels fears that right and left extremes Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, neither of which excite the markets, may be the last left standing.

Retail traders are net buyers of gold. Find out here what this hints about the coming price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices retreated after touching the highest level in five months. Support is marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1282.31, with a move below that exposing the 1263.87-65.66 area (50% level, February 27 high). Alternatively, a push above resistance in the 1302.90-08.00 zone (76.4% Fib, former support) targets the 100% expansion at 1336.19.

Gold Prices May Resume Advance on French Election Jitters

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time below the $54/bbl figure. A daily close below support at 52.04, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposesthe 23.6% level at 50.14. Alternatively, a push above the 50% Fibat 53.57 targets the 55.10-21 area (January 3 high, 61.8% expansion).

Gold Prices May Resume Advance on French Election Jitters

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.