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Crude Oil Prices Extend Gains as G7 Grapples with Syria Crisis

Crude Oil Prices Extend Gains as G7 Grapples with Syria Crisis

2017-04-10 23:18:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices extend gains as US hardens line on Syria
  • Gold prices mark time as Yellen hews to policy status quo
  • Day 2 of G7 summit, API inventory figures on tap ahead

Crude oil prices continued to push upward as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a tougher line on the conflict in Syria at a meeting with his G7 counterparts. He said the US will “[hold] to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents,” stoking fears of a deepening crisis that may disrupt supply flow.

The sit-down extends for another day and traders will probably continue to monitor emerging commentary with great interest. Tillerson travels to Russia immediately thereafter and worries about the outcome of a diplomatic showdown may keep prices elevated. APIinventory flow data is also on tap.

Meanwhile, gold prices marked time as Fed Chair Janet Yellen carefully side-stepped opportunities to dislodge status-quo policy expectations in a closely-watched speech at the University of Michigan. From here, a lull in top-tier economic event risk puts geopolitics front and center.

The yellow metal rallied as risk aversion swept the markets after last week’s surprise US missile strike on Syria, threatening Fed rate hike prospects. Signs of deepening crisis may weigh on sentiment anew, making for more of the same. Needless to say, de-escalation may put this dynamic into reverse.

What will drive crude oil and gold prices in the next 3 months? See our forecasts to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain locked in a range below trend-defining resistance in the 1263.87-65.66 area (February swing high, trend line, 50% Fibonacci expansion). Negative RSI divergence hints that upside momentum is ebbing and a turn lower may be ahead. A break below the 1241.20-49.01 region (range floor, 38.2% Fib) exposes 1218.90, an inflection point in play since mid-January. Alternatively, a move above resistance targets the 61.8% level at 1282.31.

Crude Oil Prices Extend Gains as G7 Grapples with Syria Crisis

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continued to push higher as expected having cleared resistance at 52.04, the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion. From here, a daily close abovethe 50% levelat 53.57 targets the 55.10-21 area (January 3 high, 61.8% Fib). Alternatively, a reversal back below 50.04 exposes the 23.6% expansion at 50.14 anew.

Crude Oil Prices Extend Gains as G7 Grapples with Syria Crisis

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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