We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
Gold Prices to Fall if Trump, Xi Meeting Clears Fed Hike Path

Gold Prices to Fall if Trump, Xi Meeting Clears Fed Hike Path

2017-04-06 08:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices continue to stall below trend-defining resistance
  • Crude oil prices slump as EIA data shows inventory increase
  • Smooth Trump, Xi meeting may weigh on commodity prices

Gold prices dipped toward the floor of their two-week range but swiftly recovered after minutes from the March FOMC meeting crossed the wires. Perhaps most critically, the document showed that central bank staff and about half of the rate-setting committee included an explicit assumption of expansionary fiscal policy in their economic forecasts.

Traders appeared to interpret signs of dependence on an inflationary fiscal boost to make the case for tightening as dovish (as expected), figuring that the recent failure of the AHCA healthcare reform bodes ill for implementing the rest of the White House agenda. An otherwise hawkish discussion of starting to trim the balance sheet this year was probably dismissed on these grounds.

From here, the spotlight turns to a meeting between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Combative rhetoric from Washington DC has markets worried about a potential rift in the trading relationship between the world’s largest economies that might upset global supply chains and the international commercial order as a whole.

If the Trump/Xi sit-down appears to show the two leaders finding common ground, the threat of such a gloomy scenario will downgraded (at least for now). That may be seen as clearing the path for Fed rate hikes, since the alternative would likely result in dramatic risk aversion and put the central bank on the sidelines. Such a result would inherently undermine demand for anti-fiat assets, weighing on gold.

Crude oil prices slumped after EIA inventory data unexpectedly showed that stockpiles added 1.57 million barrels last week. Consensus forecasts ahead of the release pointed to a small 150k barrel drawdown and an API estimate released a day earlier argued for a 1.83 million barrel outflow. Here too, the focus now turns to the Trump/Xi meeting.

Census Bureau data released earlier this week showed that China became the largest importer of US crude in February. An adversarial relationship may dim prospects for more of the same, trimming global supply flows and pushing prices upward. A Trump/Xi meeting that passes without major incident may lay such concerns to rest for the near term, weighing on the WTI benchmark along the way.

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions say about gold price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to mark time below key resistance at 1263.87 (February swing high, trend line). A Shooting Star candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence hint a turn lower may be brewing ahead. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1236.83 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% level at 1220.17.

Gold Prices to Fall if Trump, Xi Meeting Clears Fed Hike Path

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices were rejected after an attempt to challenge the $52/bbl figure. Near-term support is at 50.14, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 14.6% level at 48.98. Alternatively, a daily close above the 38.2% Fib at 52.04 exposes the 50% expansion at 53.57.

Gold Prices to Fall if Trump, Xi Meeting Clears Fed Hike Path

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.