Talking Points:

  • Gold prices edge higher as Fed rate hike outlook moderates
  • Comments from Yellen and Kashkari in the spotlight ahead
  • Crude oil prices hold support line as refining pace quickens

Gold prices rose for a sixth consecutive day, extending the longest winning streak since mid-January. The US Dollar edged lower against most of its major counterparts and Treasury bond yields declined as the priced-in Fed rate hike path continued to flatten. Not surprisingly, this offered a lift to non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets including the yellow metal.

Significant follow-through seems unlikely in the near term however, with traders probably leery of overcommitting ahead of an upcoming speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – the sole dissenting vote against the rate hike announced last week – are also on tap. Yellen’s usually measured remarks and Kashkari’s dovish leanings may see gold continue upward.

Crude oil prices touched a four-month low but swiftly erased intraday losses after EIA inventory data crossed the wires. Stockpiles added 4.95 million barrels, echoing API data foreshadowing a larger gain than the 1.77 million barrels projected by economists. Refining capacity utilization jumped by 2.3 percent however, the most since November 2015 and well in excess of the 0.38 percent expected. That seems to suggest that crude oversupply is being absorbed far faster than previously thought.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices built on recent gains but momentum has slowed somewhat, with buyers unable to secure a sustained break above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1248.58. A daily close above this barrier would expose the 50% level at 1265.23. Alternatively, a reversal lower that sees prices slip back below the 23.6% Fib at 1227.99 opens the door for a retest of the 14.6% expansion at 1215.29.

Gold Prices May Extend Advance as Yellen, Kashkari Speak

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices probed below but ultimately failed to break key support at 47.22 (50% Fibonacci retracement, rising trend line). A breach of this barrier confirmed on a daily closing basis sees the next downside barrier at 45.33, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a turn back above the 38.2% Fib at 49.11 paves the way for a retest of the 23.6% retracementat 51.44.

Gold Prices May Extend Advance as Yellen, Kashkari Speak

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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