News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (MAR) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $72.6B
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (MAR) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $-65.5B
  • USD/JPY continues to pullback from the monthly high (109.79) to largely mirror the recent weakness in longer-dated US Treasury yields. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Gold continues to climb as US real yields maintain their decline $XAUUSD
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.72% Gold: 1.24% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Seven-Week Plunge Searches Support -
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.08%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) steadily trending lower towards yearly low. Feb low up first at 89.68, then 89.20 to follow. Get your $USD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.09% France 40: -0.07% Germany 30: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.41% US 500: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via
  • Gold prices have jumped to a fresh three-month-high to start this week. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JStanleyFX here:
Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Rise as Inventories Swell

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Rise as Inventories Swell

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices rise in risk-on trade after Trump speech
  • Fed’s Brainard may encourage further gold price decline
  • EIA inventory data may top forecasts, capping oil gains

Crude oil prices dipped to a two-week low yesterday but sellers ultimately failed to sustain momentum.

A host of potential catalysts encouraged the move lower. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said producers outside of the cartel that signed up to its output cut deal are lagging on implementation. Separately, Iran said it was too soon to renew the accord beyond the first half of the year while Saudi Arabia reportedly increased output in January.

The WTI benchmark established an intraday bottom and recovered alongside the S&P 500, US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar while gold prices turned downward. That seems to suggest the recovery reflected pre-positioning for the possibility of a revitalized “Trump trade” before the US President gave a much-anticipated speech to a joint session of Congress.

As it turned out, that is precisely what happened. While Trump did not offer substantive fiscal policy details that markets have been keen to see, his conciliatory tone appeared to soothe jittery investors. Crude is rallying alongside share prices while gold is licking its wounds near the daily low in early European hours. US index futures rea pointing convincingly higher, hinting the risk-on mood will carry into Wall Street trade.

Looking ahead, on-coming US economic data is expect to put performance as broadly on-trend, with the spotlight likely to be pointed at comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. She is a vocal dove and if her remarks echo the pro-tightening message on offer from other US central bank officials in recent weeks, gold may fall further as the case for a March rate hike looks even more compelling.

Meanwhile, oil prices may stumble as official EIA weekly inventory flow data comes across the wires. An increase of 1.63 million barrels is expected. A private-sector estimate from API published yesterday (but overlooked as the Trump speech dominated attention) argued for a larger 2.5 million barrel build over the same period. If that proves prescient, sellers may attempt to retake the initiative.

Are crude oil and gold prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in 2017? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices edged lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1242.12-45.35 area (trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes resistance-turned-support at 1218.90. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% level at 1263.15 targets the 50% Fib at 1277.53.

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Rise as Inventories Swell

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain stuck in a narrow range, dithering after completing a bullish Triangle chart formation. A daily close above the 55.21-65 area (January 3 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) targets the 50% level at 57.18. Alternatively, a move below Triangle top resistance-turned-support at 53.66 aims for trend line support doubling as the Triangle bottom, now at 52.31.

Crude Oil Prices May Struggle to Rise as Inventories Swell

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.