News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zHY7m https://t.co/63fFMZgCQA
  • 6 out of 9 Dow Jones sectors ended higher, with 73.3% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. healthcare (+2.39%), information technology (+1.54%) and consumer discretionary (+0.75%) were among the best performers, while energy (-0.82%) lagged behind.
  • 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (MAR) Actual: 63.6 Previous: 53.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DYCLXAFcCr https://t.co/ObnecL3R6u
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (MAR) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 53.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-15
  • For markets, data really only matters to the extent it drives monetary policy bets Did US retail sales absolutely crush estimates? YES Guess what? Odds of a #Fed rate hike by end of 2022 worsened, now about 54% chance vs 90% early April Dovish #Fed comments doing the real work https://t.co/8phPSG9DMe
  • CDC panel tentatively set to meet late next week on Johnson & Johnson vaccine $JNJ $SPX $NDX $RUT $DJI
  • Fed's Mester: - Does not think the Fed being behind the curve is a primary risk - Second half of the year is going to be strong - Growth will be at 6% or higher overall this year
  • Following their rebound from critical trend support at the end of March, gold prices have now broken through multi-week consolidation resistance. Get your $XUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/uZtcPEukJ1 https://t.co/qu0PLXwjwJ
  • Silver hit a fresh three-week high above the 25.80 level. The metal had hit its lowest point since December at the end of March, around the 24.00 level. Get your $XAG market update here:https://t.co/hN2TNhCsio https://t.co/z8EqgtQHyX
Crude Oil Prices Torn Between Conflicting Supply Trends

Crude Oil Prices Torn Between Conflicting Supply Trends

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices stall as markets weigh conflicting supply trends
  • Gold prices hit 3-month high as markets sour on “Trump trade”
  • Commodities may lack drivers for near-term trend development

Crude oil prices have stalled anew as traders weigh conflicting supply trends. On one hand, OPEC is pushing for broader implementation of a supply cut deal agreed by the cartel and several large external producers, notably including Russia. On the other, swing output continues to swell, with Baker Hughes data showing the number of active US rigs rose to the highest since October 2015 last week.

Significant progress on this narrative seems unlikely over the coming day. Markets may have to wait until Tuesday to see the next significant catalyst for trend development. The EIA monthly report and the weekly API inventory flow data are due to cross the wires.

Gold prices continued to push higher as the US Dollar swooned alongside benchmark Treasury bond yields and the priced-in rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures flattened. Not surprisingly, this bolstered the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets including the yellow metal.

The move may reflect ebbing confidence in the so-called “Trump trade” after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the impact of the administration’s expansionary economic plan is unlikely to be seen in 2017. From here, upcoming remarks from Dallas Fed President Kaplan, hawkish though they may be, are likely to be overshadowed by fiscal concerns before a much-anticipated speech from President Trump.

What does retail traders’ gold positioning say about the price trend? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rose to the highest level in over three months. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1263.15 opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 1277.53. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 1245.35 targets rising trend line support at 1237.75.

Crude Oil Prices Torn Between Conflicting Supply Trends

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are digesting gains after completing a Triangle chart pattern. The setup has bullish implications in the context of the up move preceding it. Near-term resistance is in the 55.21-65 area (January 3 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion), with a daily close above that targeting the 50% level at 57.18. Alternatively, a reversal below Triangle top resistance-turned-support at 53.67 exposes a rising trend line doubling as the Triangle floor, now at 52.20.

Crude Oil Prices Torn Between Conflicting Supply Trends

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES