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Crude Oil Prices Look to IP Conference as Deadlock Continues

Crude Oil Prices Look to IP Conference as Deadlock Continues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices looking to IP conference as deadlock continues
  • Gold prices may fall as hawkish Fed-speak boosts rate hike bets
  • Technical positioning bolsters the case for bearish gold outlook

Commodity pricesmade little headway as US markets remained shuttered for the President’s Day holiday at the start of the week (as expected).

From here, crude oil prices will be keeping an eye on the three-day International Petroleum (IP) conference hosted by the Energy Institute getting underway in London. A busy speaking schedule of industry bigwigs includes OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo and IEA Director Keisuke Sadamori.

The WTI contract has been stuck in a narrow congestion range, with ATR-measured volatility down to the lowest level since mid-2004, as traders weigh up OPEC’s supply cut deal against swelling swing supply. The markets will be on the lookout for any remarks that can help break the deadlock.

Meanwhile, gold prices will probably continue to reflect Fed policy speculation. Comments from Neel Kashkari, Patrick Harker and John Williams – Presidents of the US central bank’s Minneapolis, Philadelphia and San Francisco branches – stand to inform intraday performance.

Recent commentary from Fed officials has taken a decidedly hawkish tone, most notably in last week’s Congressional testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. More of the same this time around may steepen the projected tightening path, weighing on the yellow metal.

What do traders’ buy and sell decisions say about the gold price trend? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices may be forming a double top near monthly highs marked by a pair of bearish candlestick formations, one an Engulfing and the other a Dark Cloud Cover setup. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1215.75 sees the next downside barrier at 1197.99, the 38.2% barrier. Alternatively, a move above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1245.29 exposes the 38.2% level at 1263.05.

Crude Oil Prices Look to IP Conference as Deadlock Continues

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time in familiar territory. A daily close above range top resistance at 53.86 opens the door for a test of the 55.21-65 area (January 3 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). Alternatively, a drop below rising trend line support, now at 52.02, paves the way for a challenge the 38.2% Fib retracementat 50.25.

Crude Oil Prices Look to IP Conference as Deadlock Continues

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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