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Crude Oil Prices Capitalize Amid Exodus from Trump Trade

Crude Oil Prices Capitalize Amid Exodus from Trump Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Crude oil prices erased losses suffered after an unexpectedly large weekly inventory increase as a timid FOMC policy announcement punished the US Dollar, offering a lift to the USD-denominated WTI benchmark. An EIA report showed stockpiles added 6.47 million barrels last week, more than twice the build expected (2.55 million barrels).

Oil was on the upswing ahead of the day’s scheduled event risk however. That might have reflected a combination of geopolitical factors pointing to a generally US friendlier posture toward the fossil fuel industry. The House of Representatives voted to rescind a rule that forced producers to disclose payments to foreign governments and former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson was confirmed as the next Secretary of State.

Gold prices erased intraday losses after the Fed statement crossed the wires. The metal corrected lower from a weekly high as the greenback attempted a pre-FOMC recovery but sellers threw in the towel after Janet Yellen and company said they see near-term risks to the economic outlook as “roughly balanced” and expect “only gradual increases” in the baseline lending rate.

The next big inflection point comes on Friday’s by way of US labor-market data. In the meantime, a lull in top-tier news flow is likely to put sentiment trends at the forefront. Risk appetite soured in Asian trade, most European bourses are following suit and S&P 500 futures are pointing decidedly lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street.

On balance, this looks like a recipe for gold to continue to climb as traders read the Fed’s timid tone as reinforcing the logic behind the unwinding of the so-called “Trump trade” since the beginning of the year. The impact on crude oil prices may be a bit muddled but the path of least resistance may favor gains in the near term as US Dollar selling continues to offer de-facto support.

Are gold and crude oil prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in the first quarter? Find out here !

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices paused to consolidate gains, snapping a three-day winning streak. The metal has erased nearly all of last week’s losses but buyers have fallen short of overturning a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that marked the latest swing top, warning that the near-term bias still favors the downside. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1219.20 would change that, exposing the 50% level at 1248.98. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 1182.36 targets the 14.6% retracement at 1159.65.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain stuck in familiar territory as they attempt to put the finishing touches on a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. From here, a drop below minor support at 52.44 exposes the 50.25-69 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, January 10 low). Adaily close below that would confirm the topping setup. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib expansionat 53.75 sees the next upside barrier in the 55.21-65 zone (January 3 high, 38.2% expansion).

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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