News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) Actual: 102 Expected: 100 Previous: 99
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) due at 06:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 100 Previous: 99
  • 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Actual: 0.3 Expected: -1.6 Previous: -1.1
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.6 Previous: -1.2
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • US #NaturalGas futures (Henry Hub) shoot past 6USD during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific trading session (though prices have trimmed most gains), nearing the 2014 high Prices have climbed over 37% since September 23rd
  • WTI #CrudeOil prices extend gains during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific trading session, nearing the July high at 76.95 Prices are up almost 0.9% on the day so far
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • Brent oil prices hit $80 per barrel for the first time since October 2018 #trading #OOTT
Gold Prices May Continue to Fall as Fed Rate Hike Bets Swell

Gold Prices May Continue to Fall as Fed Rate Hike Bets Swell

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices drop on OPEC, Mnuchin appointment, ADP data
  • Crude oil prices soar as last-minute output cut deal emerges
  • Upbeat ISM survey data may boost Fed rate hike bets further

Gold prices faced renewed selling pressure as Fed rate hike bets firmed anew, driving the US Dollar higher alongside front-end US bond yields. This undermined demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. The move seemed to owe to the return of the so-called “Trump trade”, an OPEC output cut deal and upbeat US data in equal measure.

The appointment of Steve Mnuchin – a former banker and hedge fund manager – as Treasury secretary seemed to reassure markets. Investors may have reasoned that a seasoned finance professional ought to be well-positioned to reconcile some contradictions within Mr Trump’s economic plans, focusing on fiscal stimulus and softening potentially growth-negative protectionist impulses.

Meanwhile, ADP reported that the US added 216k jobs in November, topping expectations for a more modest 170k increase as well as the prior month’s 147k gain. The result may have driven speculation that the US economy is running hotter than previously expected even before the President-elect ramps up price growth, calling for a further steepening of the projected tightening path.

The last-minute OPEC accord did wonders for crude oil prices, sparking the largest daily advance in more than nine months, but seems to have also hurt precious metals. Higher energy prices may amplify already building inflationary pressure in the year ahead, giving Fed Chair Janet Yellen and company yet another reason to speed up policy normalization.

Looking ahead, more top tier US data is in the spotlight as November’s ISM manufacturing survey crosses the wires. Economists expect a print at 52.5, putting the pace of factory-sector activity growth at the highest in four months. Another upbeat surprise in line with recently rosy US news-flow may stoke rate hike speculation further, hurting gold and possibly capping gains for USD-denominated oil prices.

See the schedule of upcoming webinars and join us LIVE to follow the financial markets!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices accelerated lower anew but failed to clear former range support so far. A daily close below the 123.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1171.83 targets the 138.2% level at 1152.30. Alternatively, a rebound above the 100% Fib at 1203.40 exposes the 76.4%expansion at 1234.97.

Gold Prices May Continue to Fall as Fed Rate Hike Bets Swell

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices erased last week’s losses and now look poised to test above the $50/bbl figure. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 50.05 opens the door for a test of the 51.64-91 area (double top, 76.4% level). Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 48.55 targets the 38.2% expansion at 47.05.

Gold Prices May Continue to Fall as Fed Rate Hike Bets Swell

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.