We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • China vows to take countermeasures against US list on 33 entities
  • ECB's Lane says PEPP boost is a proportionate response to outlook, adds that the ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments $EUR
  • $EURUSD: los continuados avances auguran más angustia cuando llegue la corrección #eur #usd #BCE #trading https://t.co/YWe3C3FJ6D
  • ECB's Hozmann says PEPP program is efficient in reducing distortions $EUR
  • 🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM Actual: -10.5% Previous: -20.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-05
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/mgchaQhc4K
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.20%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Lo0Rq3fRxE
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 UK-EU Brexit Talks due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-05
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -20.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-05
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.82% Silver: 0.04% Gold: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/O3RaJ4mr4W
Crude Oil, Gold Price Moves After US Election Face Roadblocks

Crude Oil, Gold Price Moves After US Election Face Roadblocks

2016-11-10 10:52:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices mirror risk appetite swings after US election
  • Gold prices erase intraday surge on inflation, rates speculation
  • Follow-through may be undermined as post-vote dust settles

Crude oil prices did not see as dramatic of a pickup in volatility as many cycle-sensitive assets in the wake of the US presidential election yesterday. Prices dipped and recovered to post gains by the end of the session, mirroring the seesaw in broader risk appetite trends, but the magnitude of back-and-forth moves seemed relatively restrained.

European shares are on the upswing and S&P 500 futures are pointing strongly higher, hinting that the risk-on mood ultimately prevailing after the unexpected victory of Republican nominee Donald Trump is poised to continue. While this seems likely to offer a lift to the sentiment-geared WTI benchmark, supply-side worries may cap gains as traders recall an unexpectedly large inventory build reported by the EIA yesterday.

Gold prices initially soared as risk aversion after Mr Trump’s victory weighed on Fed rate hike bets. Markets reassessed the landscape by day’s end however, unwinding intraday gains. The baseline view now seems to see the new administration’s grandiose fiscal policy plans stocking a rapid inflation pickup. This will accelerate Fed stimulus withdrawal, boosting yields and undermining gold’s appeal.

The risk-on bias telegraphed ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street presumably reflects optimism about the growth implications of Mr Trump’s spending plans. This feeds expectations of faster price growth and higher borrowing costs, which may hurt gold further. Follow-through may be undermined as investors consider the new administration’s promised trade policy however.

See the schedule of upcoming webinars and join us LIVE to follow the financial markets!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are in digestion mode following yesterday’s breakneck volatility. Near-term resistance is at 1292.37, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close above that exposing the 1303.62-08.15 area (May 2 high, 50% level). Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 1272.84 targets the 14.6% retracement at 1260.80.

Crude Oil, Gold Price Moves After US Election Face Roadblocks

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are waiting on follow-through after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, a setup suggesting a rebound may be ahead. Breaking the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 45.54 on a daily closing basis targets the 46.51-47.04 area (trend line support-turned-resistance, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn below the 61.8% Fib at 44.04 exposes the 76.4% retracement at 42.18.

Crude Oil, Gold Price Moves After US Election Face Roadblocks

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.