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Gold Prices Stall Below $1300, Look to ISM Data for Direction

Gold Prices Stall Below $1300, Look to ISM Data for Direction

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold price marks time below $1300/oz amid lull in impactful news flow
  • Crude oil price drops most in 4 months as markets sour on OPEC deal
  • ISM manufacturing survey, API inventories data in the spotlight ahead

Gold prices marked time absent fresh fodder feeding Fed policy speculation. The US central bank’s favored PCE inflation gauge registered core inflation squarely in line with expectations at 1.7 percent, offering nothing novel to spur on repositioning.

October’s ISM manufacturing survey is on tap next, with consensus forecasts calling for a slight pickup in factory-sector activity growth. An upbeat result may boost rate hike bets, weighing on gold. Follow-through is unlikely however as traders look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement.

Crude oil prices posted the largest daily decline in four months amid concerns about implementation of last month’s OPEC output management deal as cartel members bicker over output targets. Negotiations will continue to present headline risk ahead of a meeting to finalize strategy at the end of the month. The weekly API inventory data set is due to cross the wires later in the day.

Track short-term gold and crude oil chart patterns using our GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are inching upward having found an interim floor at a four-month low, as expected. From here, a break above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1282.68 on a daily closing basis targets the 1303.62-08.30 area (May 2 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal below rising channel support at 1264.64 exposes a double bottom at 1250.11.

Gold Prices Stall Below $1300, Look to ISM Data for Direction

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices accelerated downward having topped below the $52/bbl figure, as expected. From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 45.54 exposes the 61.8% level at 44.04. Alternatively, a move back above the 38.2% Fib at 47.04 targets the 23.6% retracement at 48.90.

Gold Prices Stall Below $1300, Look to ISM Data for Direction

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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