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Crude Oil Fails to Sustain Gains After Spiking on Inventory Data

Crude Oil Fails to Sustain Gains After Spiking on Inventory Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil price briefly spiked on inventory data but failed to hold up
  • Gold prices retreated after posting largest daily advance in a month
  • Clouded risk sentiment trends, OPEC negotiations stand out as risks

Crude oil prices briefly spiked upward after EIA inventory data showed an unexpected outflow of 553k barrels last week. The outcome clashed with an API estimate published yesterday showing a build of 4.8 million barrels over the same period.

A US Dollar recovery following stellar PMI data in the second half of the North American trading day and continued skepticism about the viability of OPEC supply management effort may have undermined upside momentum. Iraq is at center stage this week after asking for an exemption from planned output cuts.

Looking ahead, a lull in top-tier event risk may open the door for risk trends to take the reins. S&P 500 futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, offering little by way of directional guidance. The landscape may change however as another round of Q3 earnings reports crosses the wires.

Gold prices retreated – failing to find follow-through on the prior day’s advance as expected – as US Treasury bond yields moved higher, undermining demand for non-interest-bearing assets. Markets may remain non-committal as investors look ahead to Friday’s US GDP data to drive Fed rate hike speculation.

What do short-term gold and crude oil price patterns hint about on-coming trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are digesting gains having cautiously recovered from a four-month low (as expected). A daily close above the 1272.84-74.29 area (October 20 high, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) targets the 38.2% level at 1292.37. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% Fib at 1260.80 exposes the June 24 low at 1250.11.

Crude Oil Fails to Sustain Gains After Spiking on Inventory Data

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices stalled after turning lower as expected. Near-term support remains at 48.90, the 23.6%Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that targeting the 38.2% level at 47.04. Alternatively, a rebound above the14.6% Fibat 50.05 exposes the June 9 top at 51.64.

Crude Oil Fails to Sustain Gains After Spiking on Inventory Data

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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