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Gold, Crude Oil Prices Look to US Retail Sales to Shape Fed Bets

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Look to US Retail Sales to Shape Fed Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices fall on glut concerns despite EIA inventory draw
  • Gold prices pause above key support as US bond yields retrace
  • Augusts’ US Retail Sales data to shape Fed rate hike speculation

Crude oil prices fell despite the EIA reporting an unexpected weekly inventory drawdown. Worries about a deepening supply seemed to be at the heart of the selloff. Libya’s state oil company lifted sales restrictions at three major ports (Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Zueitina), potentially unlocking as much as 300k b/d in shipments. Meanwhile, news-wires reported that Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell may be readying to resume shipments from Nigeria. Perhaps most interestingly, Libya and Nigeria are both OPEC members, so their actions may scuttle a much-hyped output freeze deal to be discussed by the cartel this month.

Gold prices edged higher as US front-end bond yields pulled back, hinting at moderation in Fed rate hike speculation as relevant news-flow begins to cross the wires anew after a two-day lull. Augusts’ US Retail Sales report is first to take the spotlight, with expectations pointing to a slight downtick following standstill in July. A weaker outcome mirroring US data’s tendency to underperform relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks may inspire a down-shift in the projected tightening path and weigh on the US Dollar, sending the yellow metal higher. Such a result may likewise offer de-facto support to the USD-denominated WTI benchmark.

What do past gold and crude oil price patterns hint about on-coming trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices paused to consolidate losses en route to support in the 1303.62-08.00 area (May 2 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Breaching this barrier on a daily closing basis paves the way for a test of the 50% level at 1287.29. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 1333.62 exposes falling trend line resistance at 1349.40.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Look to US Retail Sales to Shape Fed Bets

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are within striking distance of monthly lows having topped below the $48/barrel figure as expected. From here, a daily close below the 42.73-43.02 area (50% Fibonacci expansion, September 1 low) exposes the 61.8% level at 41.26. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 44.20 targets the 23.6% expansion at 46.02.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices Look to US Retail Sales to Shape Fed Bets

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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