Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices drop as IEA forecasts prolonged supply glut
- Gold prices decline amid rebuilding Fed rate hike speculation
- API data hints EIA inventory build may undershoot forecasts
Crude oil prices declined after the IEA said “supply will continue to outpace demand at least throughthe first half of next year” in its monthly report. The agency downgraded its 2017 global demand outlook by 200k b/d and said non-OPEC supply will rebound over the same period, projecting a gain of 380k b/d.
Gold prices fell as front-end US bond yields recovered alongside the US Dollar, hinting at rebuilding Fed rate hike bets after yesterday’s setback triggered by dovish commentary from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Indeed, the priced-in probability of tightening before the end of the year rose to 54.5 to 56.5 percent.
Looking ahead, the official set of EIA crude oil inventory data is in focus, with expectations pointing to a gain of 2.77 million barrels. A private-sector estimate from API showed stockpiles rose by 1.44 million barrels last week. The WTI benchmark may rise if this proves to foreshadow relatively smaller build.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices are edging back toward range support in the 1303.62-08.00 area (May 2 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A daily close below this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1287.29. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 1333.62 targets falling trend line resistance at 1350.00.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices resumed the move lower after briefly pausing to consolidate. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 44.20 targets the 50% level at 42.73. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 46.02 exposes falling trend line resistance at 47.48.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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