We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DMsfBoBHff
  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Eyes Break of 2020 Downtrend - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/02/28/EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-Euro-Eyes-Break-of-2020-Downtrend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #EURUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/AHwy1rIwZN
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX runs through his favorite charts and potential set-ups for the week ahead in the FX and CFDs market here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/108721147?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • $EURMXN goes parabolic as global equity selling persists https://t.co/DTYPcp5Gwb
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT as he goes over London #FX & #CFD charts for the next week. Register here: https://t.co/CoMkMA0pdF https://t.co/qdeb1YFrFd
  • Sum up the global equity meltdown over the past week https://t.co/A3AQYmnaPd
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (FEB), Actual: 5.0% Expected: 5.0% Previous: 5.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Unemployment Change (000's) (FEB), Actual: -10k Expected: 5.0k Previous: -4.0k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • RT @TayTayLLP: Flows flows! Equities shed quite a lot for the wk. We had a $20.41bn outflow in stocks - still not at par w/ the Dec '19 rou…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.08%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 69.71%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/bbDSK27AD4
Crude Oil Eyes API Data After Selloff Stalls on OPEC Deal Hopes

Crude Oil Eyes API Data After Selloff Stalls on OPEC Deal Hopes

2016-09-13 03:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices rise as OPEC stokes output freeze deal hopes
  • Gold prices bounce on dovish comments from Fed’s Brainard
  • API inventory data on tap, gold waiting for key US news-flow

Crude oil price action seemed somewhat counter-intuitive yesterday. Prices launched higher after OPEC updated its 2017 market outlook to predict that output from outside the cartel will increase by 200k barrels, reversing a previous forecast that envisioned a drop of 150k barrels. One might have expected that the prospect of a supply increase would pressure prices lower, not send them upward.

A possible explanation may be that traders interpreted the announcement in the context of speculation that OPEC producers might agree to an output freeze at an informal meeting in Algiers this month. Traders may have reasoned that an accord is more likely if the group’s membership is growing more concerned about downside price pressure from outside their ranks.

Gold prices rebounded after touching a three-week low intraday after Fed Governor Lael Brainard struck a familiarly dovish tone in the last bit of commentary from policy officials before this month’s FOMC policy announcement. Markets were keen to see if Brainard would adjust her posture to fall in line with the recent hawkish rhetorical shift from most of her colleagues. The US Dollar declined alongside front-end bond yields after the Governor spoke.

Looking ahead, crude oil will look to the API weekly inventories estimate for direction. The report sent prices sharply higher last week. Gold may struggle to find lasting directional conviction amid a lull in Fed-linked news flow. The near-term bias may cautiously favor the upside as markets digest down-shift in the projected rate hike path following Governor Brainard’s commentary, but lasting follow-through may have to wait for US retail sales, inflation and consumer confidence data due later in the week.

Is picking price direction most important for successful trading? See our study to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are treading water having retreated to a three-week low. A daily close below support in the 1303.62-08.00 area (May 2 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) paves the way for a challenge of the 50% level at 1287.29. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 1333.62 exposes falling trend line resistance at 1350.32.

Crude Oil Eyes API Data After Selloff Stalls on OPEC Deal Hopes

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices paused to consolidate losses after signaling a possible top with the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term support is now at 44.20, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 42.73. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 23.6% Fib at 46.02 opens the door for a retest of falling trend line resistance, now at 47.53.

Crude Oil Eyes API Data After Selloff Stalls on OPEC Deal Hopes

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.