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Gold Prices May Continue Lower as ECB Boosts Risk Appetite

Gold Prices May Continue Lower as ECB Boosts Risk Appetite

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices resume descent after brief consolidative pause
  • Crude oil prices recoil from familiar range support again
  • Supportive ECB rhetoric may boost market-wide sentiment

Gold prices slumped as risk appetite firmed across financial markets, pushing bonds lower and boosting yields to undermine demand for non-interest-bearing assets. The move began with an upbeat post-Brexit assessment from the Bank of England and continued as most US companies due to report second-quarter earnings delivered results beating consensus forecasts.

Crude oil prices found added support beyond the risk-on environment after the EIA reported that inventories fell by -2.3 million barrels last week, a larger drawdown than the -1.3 million outflow expected by economists. The larger drop was telegraphed in private-sector estimates from API yesterday.

Looking ahead, the ECB interest rate decision looms large as a potent driver of price action. An outright change in the policy stance seems unlikely but comments from President Mario Draghi may prove formative for sentiment trends.

Rhetoric suggesting officials stand ready to expand stimulus if post-Brexit contagion intensifies while helping shore up Italian banks is likely to boost risk appetite. This may compound pressure on gold while offering a further lift to the WTI contract. An indecisive posture will probably have the opposite effect.

Track key short-term levels and price patterns for gold and crude oil with our GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices accelerated lower after a brief pause following the break of support in the 1330.22-32.17 area (July 12 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). A further push below the 38.2% level at 1308.00 targets the 50% Fib at 1287.30. Alternatively, a daily close back above 1333.62 exposes the 14.6% retracement at 1349.42.

Gold Prices May Continue Lower as ECB Boosts Risk Appetite

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices recoiled from familiar range support above the $44/bbl figure once again. From here, a daily close above the intersection of trend line resistance and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansionat 48.14 targets the 50.45-51.64 area (23.6% Fib, June 9 high). Alternatively, a reversal below the July 11 low at 44.40 exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 41.86.

Gold Prices May Continue Lower as ECB Boosts Risk Appetite

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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