We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDJPY may be set for a larger pullback on the back of a deteriorating risk environment amid the potential failure in US-China trade talks. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/UOGT5xRX9v https://t.co/JLXsn96FQY
  • Poll: We've had some upgrades in a few growth forecasts from around the world recently and tomorrow brings the Nov PMIs (AUS, JPN, EZ and US). What do you think is the risk of a recession in 2020?
  • LIVE NOW: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • staring now -> https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/3952937094787220994?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/fk3MmFxalj
  • That was a fast reversal in crude oil positioning among retail CFDs yesterday. Not as heavy a build up in short as we pressure 58 https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/m1YFe8PEsM
  • LIVE IN 5 MINUTES: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.09%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pxnhohjlR2
  • LIVE IN 15 MINUTES: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Crude #oil prices are approaching confluence downtrend resistance just higher at 58.45/61. Get your crude oil technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/YtqEw4joWZ #OOTT https://t.co/WISQjuukP4
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.77% Silver: -0.08% Gold: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MB2wIHd8Zh
Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Souring Sentiment, Inventories Data

Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Souring Sentiment, Inventories Data

2016-07-13 08:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil, gold prices retrace after yesterday’s risk-on momentum
  • Optimism following emergence of new UK PM may prove fleeting
  • EIA inventory data may amplify selling pressure on WTI contract

Commodity prices have been pulled into a market-wide correction after yesterday’s broad-based surge in risk appetite. Gold prices are rebounding following a steep decline while crude oil prices are edging lower having reclaimed a connection with sentiment trends to rally alongside share prices.

Optimism appeared to follow from an early end to contest for the UK Premiership as Theresa May moved to succeed the outgoing David Cameron in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Markets were preparing for a three-month contest but ended after just three weeks when Ms May’s last opponent dropped out.

Risk-off dynamics may carry forward in the hours ahead (see article). The appointment of a new PM does nothing in and of itself to lighten the load of Brexit’s implementation, undermining follow-through on yesterday’s momentum. The upcoming BOE rate decision may also discourage chasing risky assets higher.

A sentiment-inspired slump in the WTI contract may be compounded by weekly EIA inventories data. API data released yesterday showed US stocks added 2.2 million barrels last week. If this proves more accurate than forecasts calling for a 2.25 million drawdown in the EIA report, it may embolden sellers.

Will crude oil continue to recover in the third quarter? See our forecast here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices turned sharply lower, suffering the largest drawdown in two months. A move below support at 1333.62, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, sees the next downside barrier marked by the 38.2% level at 1308.00. Alternatively, a push back above the 14.6% Fib at 1349.42 sets the stage for a retest of the July 11 high at 1375.04.

Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Souring Sentiment, Inventories Data

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices produced the largest daily advance in three months after finding support above the $44/bbl figure. From here, a daily close above the intersection of trend line resistance and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 48.14 targets the 50.45-51.64 area (23.6% Fib, June 9 high). Alternatively, a reversal below the July 11 low at 44.40 exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 41.86.

Crude Oil Prices at Risk on Souring Sentiment, Inventories Data

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.