News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/me8wMRpJjE
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/quU4MmUjxA https://t.co/jF6ubwRz1P
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/PfIVibmqn1
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/lKvEMf4QRe
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/GGVrB3r7if https://t.co/HPHUC8EG3o
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/q80wSAoxXP
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/09/26/Gold-Price-Outlook-Rising-US-Dollar-Sinks-XAUUSD-Will-Losses-Extend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gPhy0KoW3W
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDnpPbn https://t.co/Xtk5g4JQEB
Gold Prices May Renew Rally as Yields Decline in Risk-Off Trade

Gold Prices May Renew Rally as Yields Decline in Risk-Off Trade

2016-07-01 07:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices break from risk trends, recoil from range resistance
  • Gold prices may find fuel to renew rally as yields fall in risk-off trade
  • Eurozone PMI, US ISM data unlikely to command markets’ attention

Crude oil prices broke with broader risk sentiment trends yesterday. The WTI contract edged narrowly lower even as global share prices (as tracked by the MSCI World Stock Index) continued to recover. A discrete catalyst for the move did not readily present itself. Rather, price action may have reflected profit-taking into the end of the quarter following the best three-month performance since 2009.

Meanwhile, gold prices continued to mark time in familiar territory as traders waited for a new catalyst to inspire directional momentum. The yellow metal has mirrored the consolidative tone across the anti-USD space since last week’s volatility surge in the wake of the UK “Brexit” referendum. Uncertainty abounds and investors appear unwilling to commit one way or another for the time being.

Looking ahead, revised Eurozone PMI data and the US ISM Manufacturing survey are unlikely to command significant attention considering these outcomes will not yet reflect the impact of post-Brexit vote uncertainty on growth trends. With that in mind, broader sentiment trends may remain at the forefront. US stock futures are pointing downward, hinting at renewed risk aversion.

Despite yesterday’s split from sentiment trends, a firm correlation between WTI and the S&P 500 (0.74 on rolling 20-day studies) suggests crude prices may face selling pressure in risk-off trade. Bond yields are likely to decline in this scenario amid renewed haven demand for Treasuries, bolstering the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets including gold.

Track short-term gold and crude oil trading patters with our proprietary GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are attempting to build upward momentum yet again after spending four days trapped inside a narrow range. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1321.79 targets the 76.4%levelat 1338.72. Alternatively, a move below support at 1308.12, the 50% Fib, exposes the 38.2% expansionat 1294.44.

Gold Prices May Renew Rally as Yields Decline in Risk-Off Trade

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to tread water in a narrowing range below the $52/bbl figure. Near-term support is at 45.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a daily close above falling trend line resistance – now at 49.57 – targets the 23.6% Fib expansionat 51.86.

Gold Prices May Renew Rally as Yields Decline in Risk-Off Trade

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES