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Gold Prices Rejected at 2-Year High, Crude Oil Selloff Continues

Gold Prices Rejected at 2-Year High, Crude Oil Selloff Continues

2016-06-17 08:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices recoil from 2-year high as sentiment trends correct
  • Crude oil prices fail to capture risk-on rebound, fall for 6th day
  • Lull in top-tier event risk to make for consolidative mood ahead

Gold prices were rejected downward after hitting a two-year high as sentiment trends reversed in US trading hours. Risk aversion had been the order of the day but markets switched gears into corrective mode after the last batch of the day’s US economic data crossed the wires.

Stocks rebounded from session lows, bonds fell and yields edged higher to undermine demand for non-interest-bearing assets including the yellow metal. The turn-around likely reflects a correction in “Brexit”-inspired risk-off moves as investors trim exposure ahead of next week’s almost certainly dramatic volatility.

Curiously, crude oil prices held onto losses suffered alongside share prices earlier in the day. Comments from Russian energy minister Alexander Novak saying there is no need to cooperate with Saudi Arabia at this time and the still-pending weekly Baker Hughes rig count data may have played a part.

Looking ahead, the absence of high-profile event risk and the suspension of campaigning ahead of the UK referendum may make for a consolidative mood into the weekend. Markets remain decidedly jittery however, making for significant sensitivity to headline risk should something eye-catching emerge.

Are gold and crude oil prices matching DailyFX analysts’ expectations? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices were rejected lower after hitting a two-year high, snapping a six-day winning streak. Near-term support is at 1260.29, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 14.6% level at 1237.13. Alternatively, a daily close above the 1297.87-1303.62 area (38.2% Fib, May 2) targets the 50% level at 1328.25.

Gold Prices Rejected at 2-Year High, Crude Oil Selloff Continues

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices fell for a sixth consecutive day after an expected reversal evolved into a break of trend support set from February swing lows. From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 45.60 targets the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 47.90 exposes a horizontal pivot at 49.73.

Gold Prices Rejected at 2-Year High, Crude Oil Selloff Continues

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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