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Gold, Crude Oil Price Volatility May Slow as FOMC Nears

Gold, Crude Oil Price Volatility May Slow as FOMC Nears

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices fall as Brexit fears dent risk appetite
  • Gold prices score longest winning streak in six weeks
  • Risk-off momentum may slow as FOMC approaches

Crude oil prices closed at the lowest in three weeks yesterday as the sentiment-linked WTI contract continued to suffer amid broad-based risk aversion, tracking stock prices lower. Swelling “Brexit” worries appear to be stoking near-term selling pressure.

Shares and oil began to fall in tandem late last week as polls showed increasing support for voting the UK out of the European Union at a referendum next week while the priced-in odds of maintaining the status quo dropped to 65 percent, the lowest since Bloomberg began tracking them 11 months ago.

Worries about Brexit-driven market instability have echoed into Fed rate hike expectations, amplifying a dovish shift in the priced-in policy outlook touched off by May’s disappointing US jobs report. Not surprisingly, this has proven supportive for gold prices, with the metal touching a one-month high.

Looking ahead, the growing proximity of the FOMC rate decision may begin to cool momentum, with traders leery of over-committing ahead of high-profile event risk. UK polling data remains a potent wild card however and may keep risk trends gyrating as new figures cross the wires.

Are gold and crude oil prices matching DailyFX analysts’ expectations? See our forecasts here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rose for a fourth consecutive day, gain to make for the longest winning streak in six weeks. A break above resistance in the 1297.14-1303.62 area (38.2% Fibonacci expansion, May 2 high) exposes the 50% level at 1327.29. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 1259.84 targets the 14.6% expansion at 1236.85.

Gold, Crude Oil Price Volatility May Slow as FOMC Nears

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to edge lower as expected after forming a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 47.37-76 area (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, rising trend line) exposes the 38.2% level at 45.37. Alternatively, a move back above trend line support-turned-resistance at 50.46 targets the June 9 high at 51.64.

Gold, Crude Oil Price Volatility May Slow as FOMC Nears

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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