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Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil chart setup hints a top may be forming below $52/bbl
  • Gold prices rise to 3-week high, seemingly exposing May high
  • Corrective flows may bode ill for commodities into the week-end

Crude oil prices declined alongside the S&P 500 as risk appetite softened across the financial markets. Souring sentiment may reflect pre-positioning ahead of next week’s potent news-flow – notably, the FOMC rate decision – with traders using a lull in high-profile event risk to book profits and move toward a more neutral posture. The defensive mood carried over into Asian hours and looks set to continue into the final hour of trading week as stock index futures edge cautiously lower.

A broadly corrective tone may also bode ill for gold prices after the metal hit the highest level in three weeks. The move played out inversely of a sharp drop in front-end breakeven rates, a measure of priced-in inflation expectations derived from the difference in nominal and real bond yields. This dynamic may imply that traders interpreted softening price-growth bets as hinting at a dovish Fed outlook, boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.

Traders are short crude oil by a margin of 2 to 1. Find out here what this hints about the trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices appear poised to test May swing highs after breaking trend line resistance capping gains over the past month. A break above the 1297.14-1303.62 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and the May 2 high exposes the 50% level at 1327.29. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% Fib at 1259.84 targets the 14.6% expansion at 1236.85.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a top may be taking shape below the $52/barrel figure. A daily close below the intersection of a rising trend line and the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 50.13 exposes the 50% level at 48.77. Alternatively, a push above the 76.4% Fib at 51.82 targets the 100% expansion at 54.54.

Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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