We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @ReutersBiz: Fed's Barkin: coronavirus blow to U.S. economy will be deep https://t.co/5mWzwpkXrR https://t.co/y9kN6nnODo
  • RT @business: The Fed will launch a lending program this week for mid-sized businesses hurt by the coronavirus, Treasury Secretary Steven M…
  • Gold Price Outlook: XAUUSD Prices Coil Ahead of the Next Big Break https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2020/04/08/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-USD-JS-Prices-Coil-Ahead-of-Next-Big-Break-Gold-to-US-Dollar-Price.html https://t.co/0wbwyv84Cb
  • An update on the $SPX with the Fed's balance sheet overlaid: https://t.co/tKyBoTjQTQ
  • Secretary Mnuchin: - Some direct stimulus payments will be sent out by the end of next week $DXY
  • RT @KansasCityFed: Just Released: The #KCFed Labor Market Conditions Indicators suggest the level of activity declined sharply & momentum d…
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.24% Gold: 0.09% Silver: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/vae6FkD68k
  • RT @jeannasmialek: Really interesting lines in today's Fed minutes: Officials saw a "major downside risk that the spread of the virus mig…
  • The #Dow Jones opened yesterday right at the gap-fill we have been discussing as an initial target off the lows. Get your #equities market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/2kSRjUzRML https://t.co/EauHT9Nydx
  • ...oh, and mentions of 'stimulus' , 'rescue' and 'bailout' - all zero
Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

2016-06-06 09:04:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices rise most in four months after dismal US jobs data
  • Crude oil prices remain locked in narrow range below $50/bbl
  • All eyes now on crucial comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen

Gold prices behaved as one might have expected following May’s deeply disappointing US labor-market data: the yellow metal to its largest daily gain in four months as interest rate hike expectations plunged and the US Dollar sank.

From here, the spotlight turns to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. If the central bank chief plays down the slump in payrolls growth as a one-off, a pullback seems likely. Comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester over the weekend hinted this may be where officials intend to steer.

On the other hand, opting to repeat the familiar refrain about “data dependence” in policymaking without much elaboration is likely to be treated as broadly dovish by investors. This may amplify pressure on near-term rate hike bets, boosting demand for anti-fiat assets and offering gold a further lift.

Crude oil prices seemed conflicted following US payrolls data. The WTI contract initially fell with stocks, presumably reflecting the negative implications of soft US jobs growth for global output. Both subsequently recovered to end Friday’s session little-changed however, seemingly encouraged by the prospect of delayed Fed’s tightening. It remains to be seen if Janet Yellen’s commentary offers a bit of clarity.

Want to see short-term technical levels for gold and oil? Check out our new GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rallied as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. From here, a daily close above channel floor support-turned-resistance at 1245.31 exposes a horizontal pivot at 1262.60. Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1203.82 targets the 50% level at 1172.99.

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain confined in a well-defined range below the $50/barrel figure. Near-term support is at the 48.00 figure, the intersection of a rising trend line and the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that targeting 23.6% level at 46.65. Alternatively, a move above resistance marked by the 14.6% Fib expansion at 49.91 exposes the 23.6% thresholdat 51.16.

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.