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Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices rise most in four months after dismal US jobs data
  • Crude oil prices remain locked in narrow range below $50/bbl
  • All eyes now on crucial comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen

Gold prices behaved as one might have expected following May’s deeply disappointing US labor-market data: the yellow metal to its largest daily gain in four months as interest rate hike expectations plunged and the US Dollar sank.

From here, the spotlight turns to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. If the central bank chief plays down the slump in payrolls growth as a one-off, a pullback seems likely. Comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester over the weekend hinted this may be where officials intend to steer.

On the other hand, opting to repeat the familiar refrain about “data dependence” in policymaking without much elaboration is likely to be treated as broadly dovish by investors. This may amplify pressure on near-term rate hike bets, boosting demand for anti-fiat assets and offering gold a further lift.

Crude oil prices seemed conflicted following US payrolls data. The WTI contract initially fell with stocks, presumably reflecting the negative implications of soft US jobs growth for global output. Both subsequently recovered to end Friday’s session little-changed however, seemingly encouraged by the prospect of delayed Fed’s tightening. It remains to be seen if Janet Yellen’s commentary offers a bit of clarity.

Want to see short-term technical levels for gold and oil? Check out our new GSI indicator!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rallied as expected after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. From here, a daily close above channel floor support-turned-resistance at 1245.31 exposes a horizontal pivot at 1262.60. Alternatively, a move below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1203.82 targets the 50% level at 1172.99.

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain confined in a well-defined range below the $50/barrel figure. Near-term support is at the 48.00 figure, the intersection of a rising trend line and the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close below that targeting 23.6% level at 46.65. Alternatively, a move above resistance marked by the 14.6% Fib expansion at 49.91 exposes the 23.6% thresholdat 51.16.

Gold Prices Look to Yellen for Direction After Dramatic Rally

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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