Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Gold Prices Rise, Crude Oil Weakens as Risk Appetite Evaporates

Gold Prices Rise, Crude Oil Weakens as Risk Appetite Evaporates

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices find support as risk aversion weighs on Treasury yields
  • Crude oil prices may form a double top below the $47.00/bbl figure
  • US retail sales, consumer confidence and rig count data eyed ahead

Gold prices are finding support in the final hours of the trading week as risk aversion sweeps financial markets. The dour mood is driving safe-haven buying of US Treasuries, boosting prices and weighing on rates. In a broad sense, this represents erosion in the advantage of yield-bearing assets relative to alternatives, offering support to the yellow metal.

Typically sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices are trading lower but weakness seems relatively subdued given the degree of negativity. This may reflect traders’ unwillingness to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of weekly US Rig Count figures due later in the session, particularly after data reported earlier in the week revealed an unexpected drop in inventories.

Expected improvements on US retail sales and consumer confidence figures may help cap risk-off flows but notable disappointment risk exists, keeping the door open for continuation into the week-end. Fed-speak will enter into the spotlight late in the day by way of remarks from John Williams, President of the central bank’s San Francisco branch.

Markets have been somewhat dismissive of tepidly hawkish rhetoric however, so Mr. Williams would probably need to strike an overtly aggressive tone on the path of interest rates for the comments to make a lasting impression in the commodities space.

More FXCM traders are selling gold than buying it. Find out what this means for the trend !

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are attempting to rebound from now-familiar support at 1261.70, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above initial resistance in the 1294.26-1307.49 area (January 22 2015 high, 38.2% level) exposes the 50% Fib at 1324.58. Alternatively, a move below support opens the door for a challenge of rising channel floor support at 1232.62.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices jumped to the highest level in 18 months but negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum. This raises the possibility that prices are carving out a secondary top having begun a reversal with the formation of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern remain intact for now. A reversal below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 45.73 targets the 14.6% level at 44.69. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2%Fibat 47.41 exposes the 50% expansion at 48.77.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.