Gold Prices Rise, Crude Oil Weakens as Risk Appetite Evaporates
- Gold prices find support as risk aversion weighs on Treasury yields
- Crude oil prices may form a double top below the $47.00/bbl figure
- US retail sales, consumer confidence and rig count data eyed ahead
Gold prices are finding support in the final hours of the trading week as risk aversion sweeps financial markets. The dour mood is driving safe-haven buying of US Treasuries, boosting prices and weighing on rates. In a broad sense, this represents erosion in the advantage of yield-bearing assets relative to alternatives, offering support to the yellow metal.
Typically sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices are trading lower but weakness seems relatively subdued given the degree of negativity. This may reflect traders’ unwillingness to commit to a firm directional bias ahead of weekly US Rig Count figures due later in the session, particularly after data reported earlier in the week revealed an unexpected drop in inventories.
Expected improvements on US retail sales and consumer confidence figures may help cap risk-off flows but notable disappointment risk exists, keeping the door open for continuation into the week-end. Fed-speak will enter into the spotlight late in the day by way of remarks from John Williams, President of the central bank’s San Francisco branch.
Markets have been somewhat dismissive of tepidly hawkish rhetoric however, so Mr. Williams would probably need to strike an overtly aggressive tone on the path of interest rates for the comments to make a lasting impression in the commodities space.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices are attempting to rebound from now-familiar support at 1261.70, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion. A daily close above initial resistance in the 1294.26-1307.49 area (January 22 2015 high, 38.2% level) exposes the 50% Fib at 1324.58. Alternatively, a move below support opens the door for a challenge of rising channel floor support at 1232.62.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices jumped to the highest level in 18 months but negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum. This raises the possibility that prices are carving out a secondary top having begun a reversal with the formation of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern remain intact for now. A reversal below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 45.73 targets the 14.6% level at 44.69. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2%Fibat 47.41 exposes the 50% expansion at 48.77.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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