Talking Points:
- Gold price set for a weekly gain as caution on US rate hike and stocks losses prompted safe haven play
- Oil price held gains thanks to temporary bullish sentiment while market awaits Doha meeting
- Copper price picked up from one-month low although stocks piled near record high
Oil prices steadied near yesterday’s high of $38.30 thanks to demand optimism following firm economic indicators from the United States and Germany. This bullish sentiment held through to the Asian afternoon, although these encouraging signs could hardly counter a persistent over-supply of 1 million barrels per day. A decline in U.S. crude stockpiles reported earlier this week was mainly attributable to weaker imports and improved refinery utilization rather than a pick-up in demand. Nevertheless, the market expects oil prices to hold a steady course until an oil producer meeting in Doha on April 17.
Gold prices held up near a two-week high of $1244.2 and set to post a weekly gain after four straight weeks of declines, as the Federal Reserve's minutesexpressed caution over raising U.S. interest rates. Safe haven assets including gold picked up following losses in global equities and a broad risk-off sentiment in the FX markets. US 10-year Treasury yields hit 1.70%, the lowest level since February.
Copper prices rose to a daily high of 2.0865 after hitting a one-month low of 2.0670 yesterday, and set for its biggest weekly loss since January. Copper stocks in China have reached a near record high, from exchange-tracking stocks to private copper warehouses, which dampened demand prospects even as China’s economy is stabilising.
Reuters news reported that China may sell more refined copper into the world market this year, as local smelters found it hard to push for more domestic consumption. This prospect highlights the gloomy outlook for copper and also copper smelters in the world’s number one consumer country.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices maintained sideways trading pattern above the $1.207.6 firm support level. Although bullion scored gains this week, it remained range-bound within the area of 1207.6-1284.6. Momentum is currently biased to the upside.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper prices dropped below 2.1485 level to trade in the middle of the 2.0020-2.1485 range. A head and shoulder pattern is emerging as we anticipated. This range may hold into next week if prices do not extend the upside toward the resistance level today.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – This week’s oil rally has brought prices close to the $39 mark by Friday. A strong upward momentum indicates higher moves to come, and possibly a contest of $39 resistance level.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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