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  • ...I don't believe the markets will ever be okay with the Fed bowing out of stimulus. As market sentiment normalizes, speculative exposure increases proportionally, meaning there will always be a market premium to contend with. A form of the sociological 'normalization' effect
  • Equities pull back from session highs as traders eye the FOMC meeting at the top of the hour $ES $SPX $SPY
  • ...that is my take on the panic around tapering. I'm not advocating for expediting rate hikes, but to continuously punt easing back on stimulus by even a marginal amount only compounds the market's dependencies - increasing moral hazard.
  • 'The economy and markets are so strong that we can't reduce the $120 billion per month asset purchases. Further, if only we can continue this path for an indefinite future, the market will absorb the external risk on its own.'
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  • Here is my FOMC scenario table going into the rate decision. While a delay in the taper call seems feasible with the market wobble, there will always be wobbles before and the existential threat of a mkt tantrum. Always a hostage?
  • Gold prices are pushing higher so far this week and the FOMC is waiting in the wings with their September rate decision. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
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  • Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Support Ahead of the Fed - Gold Levels $Gold
Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting, Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut

Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting, Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut

Nathalie Huynh,

Talking Points:

  • Gold price slipped before US FOMC meeting this week
  • Oil price retreated after Iran held a firm stance on no output freeze
  • Copper price pared gains amid weak demand and supply glut in China

US dollar strengthened before U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week, sending gold priceand most of G10 currencies lower today. Gold touched down on a support trend line, whose break would spell trouble to the January-March climb. The downside of gold will continue to be tested up to the event’s outcome.

Commodity price slump weighed on mining shares and that in turn dampened metal prices. Last week’s rally in copper price did not last long given weak market fundamentals. Physical demand in China remains weak while copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a record high recently.

Oil priceretreated for the first time in a week, likely due to profit-taking at the peak of the rally, Iran’s refusal to contain output, and OPEC growth revision. Iran reiterated its intention to boost daily production to 4 million barrels, casting more doubt on afragile output freeze accord. OPEC downgraded GDP forecast to 3.1% from 3.4% amid pressured oil prices.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold price parked on the support trend line today as downward pressure intensified ahead of major event risk this week. An uptrend signal in moving averages also dissolved. Traders should be mindful and prepared for a breach of support level.

Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting, Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper price dipped below a support trend line today as the consolidation prevails over the upward progression. Mixed momentum signals and recent price action indicate this situation likely prolongs.

Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting, Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Oil price returned within a range of 34.25-38.36 that had held before a brief break during last week’s rally. The inherent downward momentum hints at lower moves ahead.

Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting, Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.