Oil Soars as Producers Freeze Output, Risk Rally Outshines Gold

2016-02-18 05:59:00

Nathalie Huynh, Contributor

Talking Points:

Gold remained overshadowed by the fierce risk rebound
Oil reached weekly high on abundant good news from output freeze to decline in US inventories
Copper sustained gains, look to demand pick-up in 1Q

An oil rebound continued to lead risk asset rally during the Asian session. The largest regional indices including Shanghai Composite posted gains around 2 percent. Most metals rose except copper.

Oil price reached a tad higher to top the week at 31.72 soon after today’s opening. The implication of an output cap continued to keep it afloat, which was reportedly agreed upon by oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar. Not unexpectedly, Iran signaled that it would not join the party. This is good news and the first step to keep world oil production in check. Short term volatility may increase while other producers debate to join or reject this pact.

A 3 million barrels draw in US inventory reported by the American Petroleum Institute (by subscription) today reinforced this optimism.

Gold price steadied throughout this week after Monday’s decline, concurrent to the rise of risk assets: equities, commodities. Downward pressure remains in safe haven assets like gold, JPY and CHF as they play second fiddle to a fierce resurgence of stock markets.

Copper price traded choppy near the high of last 2 weeks amid an oil recovery and news of Glencore’s improving financial situation. It is however the only one in the metal complex that did not post gains today. First quarter usually brings seasonal demand and China’s smelters are reported to curtail output, both may help to sustain upside levels in copper.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold price steadied around the 1200 mark possibly on dip demand, even as stocks continued on a strong rebound. Downward momentum signals have not abated. Traders with short positions may take into consideration the support trend line in the case of upcoming descent.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper price has so far failed to return to the upper area of support trend line – which has now turned into a resistance line. Short term support comes at 2.0020. Range trade prevails, with a light upside bias.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – The recovery in WTI oil persists as price hovers at a 2-week high. Upward momentum is building up although the pace may slow down when it enters overbought territory. Range traders could take cue from the upcoming resistance at 34.25, with stop loss near the recent multi-year low.