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Copper, Gold Depressed by An Oil Rout Following OPEC Output Disaccord

Copper, Gold Depressed by An Oil Rout Following OPEC Output Disaccord

2015-12-08 08:08:00
Nathalie Huynh,
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Talking Points:

  • Oil stabilized in 37 region after overnight crash, OPEC’s output quota was left unguarded
  • Copper also calmed down and ignored a miss in China’s trade data
  • Gold rebounded following China data, after a tumble during the commodity rout

Oil price stabilized today in Asia after a crash to a new 6-year low at 37.50 in US session, following news of OPEC’s inability to agree on daily output quota. The semi-annual meeting wrapped up on Friday without any resolution to tame low price, leaving the door open on existing quota of 30 million barrels a day. The prospect of a serious global supply-demand imbalance may retain oil under $40 for a while.

Copper and metal prices followed oil on the way down, resulting in a global commodity rout. Copper and gold were least affected however. The base metal seems unfazed by a miss in China’s trade balance today, whereas Chinese stocks slump and the yuan heads for a 4-year low. Initial market reaction to the USD-denominated data was a sell-off in commodity currencies and risk assets. Further declines of copper price would come to test a support at 2.0395.

Gold price has been on a rebound since the release of China’s trade data and mounted above 1074.25.

Previously declined on looming U.S. rate hike, gold regained favour after weak data hints at slower growth in China. The lower-than-expected exports resulted from declines across trading with the US, Europe and other counterparties. While gold generally moves in tandem with commodity complex, its nature as a store of value may bring it back in favor amid market volatility prior to the Fed’s December meeting.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold traded rather flat at the middle of the range today. An upward momentum remains, however thin market and the approaching macro events may keep gold in range for some time until volatility spikes. Range trade prevail.

Copper, Gold Depressed by An Oil Rout Following OPEC Output Disaccord

Daily chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper subsided below 20-day moving average at 2.081. In spite of yesterday’s slump, the metal is contained in a range. As pressure builds up, one of the bounds should give way. It is unclear at this stage which one may face a contest. Range trader should keep tight stops outside support/resistance levels.

Copper, Gold Depressed by An Oil Rout Following OPEC Output Disaccord

DailyChart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI oil briefly broke below 37.73 support level before consolidating around it. A former support level at 40.07 may turn into resistance level as oil price remained weak below 40 mark. Momentum signals indicate possible lower extensions, a sign that the oil rout is not yet over.

Copper, Gold Depressed by An Oil Rout Following OPEC Output Disaccord

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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