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Gold Surges after U.S. Jobs Data, Oil below $40 as OPEC Retains Output

Gold Surges after U.S. Jobs Data, Oil below $40 as OPEC Retains Output

Nathalie Huynh,

Talking Points:

  • Oil is pressured under $40 as OPEC’s no-cut implies prolonged glut
  • Copper stays elevated on demand outlook following US jobs gain, awaits China data
  • Gold jumped as market expects slower rate hike pace by Fed

Gold price surged to touch an old resistance level at 1088.76 together with a USD rally, instantly after November Non-farm Payrolls came out. A surprising move given the inverse relationship between the two, mainly due to prospect of a more gradual rate path than market previously expected.

The ECB’s modest easing on Thursday, persistently low oil that likely drags inflation, moderate US growth and Fed Chair Yellen’s hints last week all contributed to this change. While these concerns linger, gold may stay elevated in this proximity, unless China’s trade data tomorrow alter its direction.

Oil price sank below $40 as OPEC decided to keep current output to defend market share at their semi-annual meeting. With this removal of curtail target, there is no helping the oil price slump or supply glut in near term. WTI oil traded flat under this level during Asian session. With sentiment running low, it may only climb back up above $40 after a macro or economic surprise.

Copper price posted the first weekly gain since October and stays elevated above 2.0845 even before U.S. jobs report boosted demand prospect. Market’s optimism on Chinese trade balance, imports and exports data helped to sustain this gain. However investors should be mindful of downside risk should data come out less than expected. In addition, global growth remains at an average speed as German industrial production missed forecast today.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold sustained above 1080 today after its surge on Friday. Bullion is heading to test the November resistance at 1098.8, with pressure from upward momentum. At the downside, the 20-day moving average has now turned into a support level at 1074.4. Range trades still prevail.

Gold Surges after U.S. Jobs Data, Oil below $40 as OPEC Retains Output

Daily chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper rose to touch 20-day moving average at 2.091 today with potential for yet higher moves as momentum signals build up strongly. A break of this MA would hint at a full rebound from its current range adjacent to a multi-year low. Long-term traders should still be mindful of a firm resistance at 2.2025 above head.

Gold Surges after U.S. Jobs Data, Oil below $40 as OPEC Retains Output

DailyChart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI oil remained below $40 today with momentum signals at lower bound of range. Further declines will see it heading down to August low at 37.73. Oil traders with existing positions should keep watch of the $40 level for any signs of a rebound or a new range establishing below it.

Gold Surges after U.S. Jobs Data, Oil below $40 as OPEC Retains Output

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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