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Copper Jumps to Report China Will Probe Short Sales; Oil, Gold Steady

Copper Jumps to Report China Will Probe Short Sales; Oil, Gold Steady

Nathalie Huynh,

Talking Points:

  • Oil holds gains as US rigs dropped to 6-year low, after inventories fell short of forecast
  • Copper and metals surge in anticipation of China’s probe on short-selling
  • Gold trades sideways with long-term downside bias after solid US data

Gold price picked up lightly today amid thin market before the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. Overnight, gold descended near the 1067.58 support level as solid US data enhanced the chances of an early interest rate hike. Durable goods orders, personal income, new home sales were positive and initial jobless claims stayed near 40 year low.

Today could be a 7th session of sideways trading in gold. Gold holdings by exchange-traded funds have continuously dropped at a slow pace, with the latest weekly drop at 0.7 percent by November 25.

Oil price held gains as Baker Hughes Inc recorded the number of U.S. rigs dropped by 9 – bringing it to the lowest number since June 2010 and a 12th weekly decline in 13 consecutive weeks. Overnight, smaller inventory data from the Department of Energy eased some downward pressure from the previous report by API.

National crude inventories and Cushing build were both lower than forecasts and API’s number, although Cushing showed a larger build than expected, which remains a concern that hinders the upside of prices.

Copper price on COMEX jumped 4 percent during the Asian morning together with other base metals as China regulators were said to consider a probe into short-selling in the local market. Copper quoted on Shanghai Future Exchange also rose 4 percent. However this knee-jerk reaction may fade quickly given there is no sign that copper pain will be over soon.

Bloomberg reported that the industry group China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association also asked the National Development and Reform Commission to buy nickel, aluminum and other metals.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold price did not manage to break through 1081.19 resistance level yesterday, as we expected. Instead, prices reversed down to the 1067.58 support level, followed by sideways trading today. Gold may remain range-bound for a while until the next macro event risk emerges. Day traders may test out this range for a quick trade.

Copper Jumps to Report China Will Probe Short Sales; Oil, Gold Steady

15-minute chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper price surged near 20-day moving average at 2.170 today, although this knee-jerk reaction may be short-lived. Above the MA, a long-term support - now turned into resistance level - comes at 2.2025. Strong upward momentum dominates today’s session although the bulls had better wait for a confirmation of a rebound first.

Copper Jumps to Report China Will Probe Short Sales; Oil, Gold Steady

DailyChart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI oil price stopped below a support-turn-resistance level at 43.46 on a third day. With momentum signals near to peak out, this resistance level may be hard to break. A clean break above it will open up the September- November area of consolidation, whereas a failure may lead to downward reversal. Range traders could watch out for opportunities in the latter case.

Copper Jumps to Report China Will Probe Short Sales; Oil, Gold Steady

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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