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Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

2014-11-28 06:49:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
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Talking Points

Crude oil has stolen media headlines following a dramatic plunge of over 6 percent on Thursday. The collapse in prices took place on the back of inaction from OPEC producers at their latest gathering. This leaves the supply glut story to endure, which in turn stands to keep pressure on the commodity in the near-term.

Meanwhile silver led the pack of precious metals lower in recent trade with a decline of close to 1.5 percent for the session. No clear catalyst was behind the declines, yet a resurgent US Dollar likely helped drag the group lower. Looking ahead, another void of US economic data raises the question of whether USD strength could be sustained into the end of the week. If caution from the greenback bulls prevails it could leave gold and silver in line for a consolidation.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

No major US data is due over the session ahead. Please refer to the DailyFX Economic Calendar for the events next week.

Market Movements (Thu 27 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

73.5

73.54

67.73

68.09

(5.41)

-7.36%

UK Oil

77.55

77.55

71.23

71.50

(6.05)

-7.80%

Natural Gas

4.331

4.362

4.24

4.26

(0.07)

-1.69%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,197.58

1,199.54

1,185.54

1,191.50

(6.08)

-0.51%

Silver

16.50

16.55

16.15

16.22

(0.28)

-1.67%

Palladium

802

806.8

792.5

802.9

0.90

0.11%

Platinum

1,226.00

1,227.80

1,212.30

1,215.10

(10.90)

-0.89%

Copper

2.95

2.97

2.94

2.95

(0.00)

-0.14%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude has cracked the 72.70 support zone amid persistent signs of a downtrend (descending trendline, 20 SMA). This leaves downside risks to remain and warns of a test of the 2010 low near 67.25. However, given the extent of recent declines a small corrective bounce should not be precluded.

Crude Oil: Cracks Key Support Keeping The Risks Lower

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains at a crossroads as trend indicators warn of building upside momentum (20 SMA and ROC). Yet it is still capped below key resistance at 1,208 (also the 61.8% Fib.). This leaves a clearer setup desired to offer a more concrete technical bias.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: At A Crossroads Below Key Resistance With Trend Indicators Pointing Higher

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver’s ascent appears to have been capped at the 16.70 mark (former support-turned-resistance). It was the last obstacle to a more sustained advance after clearing the 50% Fib., 20 SMA, and descending trendline. The failure to breach the barrier suggests the bears may be unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal. This in turn opens the prospect of a short-term pullback.

Silver: Fails At Final Hurdle

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s downward trajectory has become cleaner in recent trade. Amid signs of a downtrend from the 20 SMA and ROC the risks are likely skewed to the downside. This leaves a break of 2.91 desired to open the next definitive level at 2.88. However, caution is still suggested when adopting fresh positioning - given the commodity’s tendency towards whipsaws over recent months.

Copper: Cleaner Downtrend Emerging

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium is struggling to sustain its recent gains at the 38.2% Fib. This has left a pair of Dojis in its path. However, the candlestick formations are not considered key reversal patterns. Alongside signs of an emerging uptrend a pullback remains questionable.

Palladium: Struggles Sub The 38.2% Fib.

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to struggle to lift-off from the 1,187 floor despite a Bullish Engulfing pattern lying in its wake. This the bears are still unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal and may continue to pull it towards its recent lows.

Platinum: Bears Pull Prices Towards Recent Lows

Crude Oil Remains Vulnerable As OPEC Fans Global Supply Glut Concerns

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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