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Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

Crude oil witnessed a rocky start to the week with the WTI benchmark off by 1.28% for the session. Global supply glut concerns were fanned by reports that several OPEC members would be excluded from production cuts. This comes ahead of a scheduled meeting amongst the petroleum producers later this week. While negative supply side cues remain, the crude benchmarks could continue to remain under pressure.

Meanwhile the precious metals witnessed a mixed session as their US Dollar counterpart drifted sideways amid a void of major US data. Looking to the session ahead, the greenback may take some guidance from revised Q3 GDP and Consumer Confidence figures. Given the generally positive sentiment towards the USD at present, it would likely take a material downside surprise to turn the tide against the reserve currency. This in turn could leave gold and silver exposed.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Mon 24 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

76.66

76.99

75.49

75.68

(0.98)

-1.28%

UK Oil

80.49

80.82

79.39

79.50

(0.99)

-1.23%

Natural Gas

4.239

4.239

4.011

4.15

(0.09)

-2.17%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,201.00

1,204.16

1,192.66

1,196.76

(4.24)

-0.35%

Silver

16.41

16.48

16.26

16.46

0.05

0.29%

Palladium

789

798.8

785.1

790.4

1.40

0.18%

Platinum

1,226.10

1,228.80

1,199.00

1,202.70

(23.40)

-1.91%

Copper

3.04

3.05

2.99

3.00

(0.04)

-1.19%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude remains capped below the 77.00 barrier with indications of a downtrend persisting (descending trendline, 20 SMA). This leaves the downside risks centered on the late September 2010 low at 72.70. A daily close above 77.00 would be required to warn of a base for the commodity.

Crude Oil: Retests and Respects Critical 77.00 Barrier

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains at a crossroads as trend indicators warn of building upside momentum (20 SMA and ROC). Yet it is still capped below key resistance at 1,208 (also the 61.8% Fib.). This leaves a clearer setup desired to offer a more concrete technical bias.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Begin To Point Higher

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver has cleared two barriers; the 20 SMA and descending trendline, which together had kept the commodity capped for several months. Yet it is struggling to push past the 50% Fib., which in turn casts doubt on a further advance. A close above the nearby hurdle would be required to turn the spotlight higher towards the 17.70 ceiling.

Silver: Encounters The Next Big Hurdle

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has continued its choppy impulsive swings under trendline resistance. Caution is suggested when adopting fresh positioning given the commodity’s tendency towards volatility over recent months. Further, trend indicators have proven prone to rapidly changing direction, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders.

Copper: Choppiness Suggests Caution Required

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium has leapt over the 23.6% Fib. and 20 SMA, suggesting that the bears have lost their grip on the precious metal. While this is a bullish signal, some caution is required when looking to adopt fresh positioning. This is given palladium’s disposition towards whipsaws in recent trade.

Palladium: Bears Lose Their Grip

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to struggle to lift off from the 1,187 floor despite a Bullish Engulfing pattern lying in its wake. This the bears are still unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal and may continue to pull it towards its recent lows.

Platinum: Bears Pull Prices Towards Recent Lows

Precious Metals Exposed To Greenback Gains On Top-Tier US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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