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Crude Recovery May Prove Short-Lived, Natural Gas Gains As Supply Dips

Crude Recovery May Prove Short-Lived, Natural Gas Gains As Supply Dips

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

Crude oil rebounded on Thursday with newswires citing speculation over potential action from OPEC ahead of their gathering next week. However, looking ahead the potential for a further recovery remains questionable. While the rout for the energy commodity certainly has been due to concern over abundant global supplies, OPEC members have not yet expressed a clear desire to reduce supply in order to boost prices.

Also in the energy space; natural gas climbed by close to 1.5 percent for the session as extreme weather conditions battered the Northern US states. The freezing conditions stand to bolster heating demand for the weather-sensitive commodity. Additionally, the latest storage injection figures bucked the trend of above average readings, which had kept pressure on prices earlier in the year. Yet it may still be too early to suggest the latest data is indicative of a looming supply shortage.

Meanwhile, in the precious metals space; gold and silver witnessed modest gains amid a lackluster session for their US Dollar counterpart. Looking into the end of the week a light US economic docket may do little to inspire the greenback bulls, which could in turn afford the precious metals some breathing room.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

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Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Thu 20 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

74.35

76.26

74.19

76.23

1.88

2.53%

UK Oil

78.17

79.91

77.53

79.91

1.74

2.23%

Natural Gas

4.393

4.498

4.246

4.46

0.06

1.46%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,182.37

1,197.03

1,176.69

1,193.48

11.11

0.94%

Silver

16.12

16.33

15.96

16.24

0.12

0.77%

Palladium

762.4

771.4

760.2

769.9

7.50

0.98%

Platinum

1,186.30

1,212.80

1,180.80

1,211.40

25.10

2.12%

Copper

3.03

3.04

3.00

3.01

(0.02)

-0.63%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude remains capped below the 77.00 barrier with trend indicators continuing to point downward (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC). While a Morning Star (reversal pattern), has emerged – it is yet to be confirmed by a successive down-day. This suggests a potential run lower towards the late September 2010 low near 72.70. A daily close above the 77.00 hurdle would be required to warn of a base for the commodity.

Crude Oil: Spotlight On Late Sep ‘10 Low Near 72.70

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold is at a crossroads as trend indicators warn of building upside momentum (20 SMA and ROC). Yet it remains capped below key resistance at 1,208 (also the 61.8% Fib.). This leaves a clearer setup desired to offer a more concrete technical bias.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Begin To Point Higher

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver is at a critical juncture as it tests its descending trendline, 20 SMA and the 50% Fib. While below these barriers a bearish technical bias is retained. A potential downside target is offered by the recent lows near 15.00. Yet fading negative momentum suggested by the ROC indicator suggests some caution is warranted.

Silver: Downtrend Remains Intact Despite Recent Bounce

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has continued its choppy impulsive swings under trendline resistance. Caution is suggested when adopting fresh positioning given the commodity’s tendency towards volatility over recent months. Further, trend indicators have proven prone to rapidly changing direction, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders.

Copper: Choppiness Suggests Caution Required

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium remains in respect of the 23.6% Fib. and 20 SMA, suggesting that the bears are retaining their grip on the metal. However, some caution is required when looking to adopt fresh positioning. This is given palladium’s disposition towards whipsaws in recent trade.

Palladium: Bears Retain Their Grip

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum remains inches away from the critical 1,187 barrier as a Bullish Engulfing formation awaits confirmation. Yet with trend indicators pointing downward (20 SMA, descending trendline) a breakout could pave the way for a push towards the July ’09 low near 1,101.

Platinum: At A Critical Juncture Near Technical Floor

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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