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Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

2014-11-07 00:23:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
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Talking Points

Crude oil retreated in trading on Thursday as fresh reports from OPEC producers bolstered supply swell expectations. Over the session ahead lingering supply glut concerns may continue to offset healthy economic data from crude’s largest consumer, the US. This suggests a high threshold for incoming US NFPs to bolster WTI, leaving it at the mercy of negative supply side cues.

Also in the energy space, natural gas witnessed a parabolic ascent in recent trade (+4.93%) with newswires reporting an impending US cold snap as a likely driver. This counteracted negative guidance for the commodity offered by another above-average storage injection print. With ongoing strong inventory builds the potential for further gains for gas hinges on robust demand expectations for the looming US winter.

Turning to the precious metals; gold and silver are set for a volatile session after being offered a brief reprieve in trading on Thursday. Another healthy reading from tonight’s eagerly-awaited US Non-Farm Payrolls report would likely bolster expectations for firmer Fed policy, which in turn could renew pressure on gold and silver.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Thu 6 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

78.9

79

77.09

77.84

(1.06)

-1.34%

UK Oil

83.25

83.3

82.03

82.78

(0.47)

-0.56%

Natural Gas

4.203

4.452

4.108

4.41

0.21

4.93%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,140.27

1,149.43

1,138.01

1,141.59

1.32

0.12%

Silver

15.31

15.45

15.21

15.39

0.09

0.56%

Palladium

756.8

760.4

745

749.7

(7.10)

-0.94%

Platinum

1,203.00

1,212.10

1,191.40

1,193.30

(9.70)

-0.81%

Copper

3.00

3.02

2.99

3.01

0.01

0.33%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude has once again retreated towards the critical 77.00 barrier, leaving a Hammer formation to fall flat. While the proximity to the floor could see some profit-taking, the scope for a recovery may be limited by nearby selling pressure at the 84.00 handle. Further, trend indicators continue to point downward (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC). This leaves a close below 77 desired to open a descent to the next definitive level near the 2011 low (74.70).

Crude Oil: Awaits Break Below 77.00 to Open 2011 Low

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold has achieved the 1,158 target offered in recent reports. Despite a Doji signaling hesitation from the bears, downside risks amid a sustained presence of a short-term downtrend as indicated by the 20 SMAand ROC. This leaves the spotlight on the mid-April ’10 low near 1,123.5.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bullish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Clearance of 1,158 Target Opens 1,123.5

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance alongside broader signs of a downtrend. The cut through the 15.60 target offered in recent reports casts the spotlight on the 2010 low near 14.65.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Keeps Immediate Risks Lower

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper is clinging to the 3.00 handle which has done little to confirm the bullish reversal signal offered by the Hammer formation on the daily. Alongside choppy trade over recent weeks a more constructive setup is desired to offer a clearer technical bias.

Copper: Awaiting Greater Confluence Of Technical Signals

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium continues its slide below the 775.00 floor with trend indicators pointing downward. Alongside a lack of bullish reversal signals the stage may be set for a drop to the 735.00 barrier.

Palladium: Eyes 735 As Trend Indicators Turn Lower

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum is within striking distance of the 1,187 target offered in recent reports. With bearish technical signals (including trend indicators) still intact, a break below the floor would be desired for fresh shorts. The next definitive target to work with is offered by the July 2009 trough near 1,101.

Platinum: Awaiting Break Below 2014 Low To Open 1,101

Gold Braces For Volatility On NFPs, Crude Oil Eyes Critical 77 Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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