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Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

The Crude benchmarks extended their slide on Tuesday as lingering supply glut concerns continued to put pressure on prices. Looking ahead; US Inventories data is tipped to reveal the fifth consecutive weekly rise in total stockpiles. Alongside multi-decade highs for US crude production, this may keep expectations for ample supplies alive and could put further pressure on WTI.

Also in the energy space; natural gas continued its recent climb, posting another gain of over 2 percent for the session. Newswires citied mounting speculation over an incoming US cold snap as a likely catalyst for the weather-sensitive commodity’s ascent. Yet the sustainability of further gains is questionable given inventories figures are yet to reflect more bullish fundamental cues. Another above-average injection figure later in the week could put the brakes on its drive higher.

Turning to the precious metals; US data will be in focus over the session ahead given its potential impact on the USD side of the equation. US Service ISM figures headline the event risk with additional cues afforded by ADP data (which helps to shape expectations for the looming NFP print). On balance US economic data has been quite robust of-late and a continuation of this trend could offer the USD bulls some fresh fuel, which in turn could weigh on gold and silver.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Tue 4 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

78.23

78.38

75.88

77.43

(0.80)

-1.02%

UK Oil

84.16

84.41

82.06

82.79

(1.37)

-1.63%

Natural Gas

4.037

4.174

4.024

4.14

0.10

2.53%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,165.22

1,174.84

1,163.81

1,168.10

2.88

0.25%

Silver

16.13

16.17

15.91

16.00

(0.12)

-0.76%

Palladium

801.9

803.2

781.7

784.5

(17.40)

-2.17%

Platinum

1,237.50

1,238.60

1,216.30

1,222.50

(15.00)

-1.21%

Copper

3.06

3.07

3.00

3.02

(0.04)

-1.37%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude has achieved the 77.00 target offered in recent reports with signs of a downtrend still intact (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC). A close below the nearby barrier would warn of a descent to the next definitive level near the 2011 low (74.70). The emergence of a Hammer formation should be monitored for confirmation from a successive up-period.

Crude Oil: Awaits Break Below 77.00 to Open 2011 Low

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains in a short-term downtrend as indicated by the 20 SMAand ROC. Alongside the break below 1,180 this leaves a bearish technical bias intact with a target offered by the July ’10 low near 1,158.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Align With Broader Bearish Backdrop

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance alongside broader signs of a downtrend. The cut through 16.50 places the spotlight on the late February 2010 low near 15.60.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Keeps Immediate Risks Lower

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

An Evening Starhas emerged following copper’s retreat from trendline resistance. The key reversal pattern suggests some scope for further weakness. Yet traders should be wary of prematurely adopting short positions given the choppy conditions that have plagued the commodity over recent weeks..

Copper: Awaiting Greater Confluence Of Technical Signals

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium continues to whipsaw with the most recent pullback leaving a Bearish Engulfing formation in its wake. While considered a key reversal pattern – it should be treated with caution given the metal’s volatile nature in recent weeks. A push below the 775 floor would be required to cement a bearish outlook and open a revisit of the 735 barrier.

Palladium: Awaiting Clearance Of Recent Range Between Key Fib Hurdles

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum has finally closed outside its1,242 to 1,289 range that had contained the precious metal over the past several weeks. Alongside signs of a short-term downtrend a bearish technical bias is preferred, placing the spotlight on the recent lows near 1,187. A climb back over 1,242 would be required to warn of a base.

Platinum: Breakout Places Focus On 2014 Lows

Crude Oil Testing Key Level Ahead Of US Inventories Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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