News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bitcoin, $BTCUSD, is working on its fifth consecutive daily slide - matching the longest bear run since Sept 2019 - as it plays out its head-and-shoulders neckline break. The fundamental landscape is proving just as hostile at the moment with regulators and Elon hate https://t.co/Hoxtlvqs7l
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.12% Silver: -0.72% Oil - US Crude: -1.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Z6tFzRWRhm
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Consumer sentiment pulls back from an eleven year high https://t.co/XVw3bNfvdo
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/k9lPlvZznA
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/JasY8jNAkb
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.14%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/68EQmJdwzo
  • 🇦🇺 Wage Price Index YoY (Q1) Actual: 1.5% Expected: 1.4% Previous: 1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-19
  • A fairly profound tweet thread from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, who calls for a reframing of US fiscal policy. https://t.co/yxYmHF6ScY
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (APR) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.38% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-19
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Wage Price Index YoY (Q1) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-19
WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst

Talking Points

Crude oil rebounded strongly on Thursday as rumors of supply cuts from OPEC producer Saudi Arabia surfaced. Newswires also pointed to a string of healthy manufacturing prints from the Eurozone, China and US as a signal of potential robust demand for the commodity. Looking to the session ahead, the prospect of further positive US data may tempt the crude bears into taking more chips off the table. However, over the near-term the scope for a more sustained advance is likely limited by lingering supply glut concerns.

Turning to the precious metals; gold slipped further in recent trade with another round of robust US economic releases lifting its US Dollar counterpart. Heading into the end of the week another strong set of housing figures from the world’s largest economy may offer the greenback further fuel, which could weigh on the yellow metal.

Over the week ahead the US Dollar faces a ton of event risk, headlined by the much-anticipated October FOMC decision. The central bank is widely expected to wind-up its long-running “QE” program, leaving traders to focus on the statement. A more hawkish tone on the back of continued improvements in the US labor market may support the USD, which would be negative for the precious metals.

Finally, copper prices climbed on Thursday with media sources citing positive Chinese manufacturing survey figures as a potential catalyst. Yet, the gains occurred long-after the initial release, suggesting bullish bets for broader global growth, and repositioning near the 3.00 technical barrier offer a more reasonable explanation.

On balance; the top-tier Chinese economic data this week presented a mixed bag. This in turn has left the commodity lacking clear guidance from the demand side of the equation. Going forward, a lack of strong conviction from traders could leave the base metal prone to further violent swings.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Thu 23 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

Energy

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

US Oil

80.36

82.34

80.04

81.95

1.59

1.98%

UK Oil

84.66

87.15

84.11

86.79

2.13

2.52%

Natural Gas

3.651

3.678

3.586

3.65

(0.00)

-0.08%

Metals

Open

High

Low

Close

$ Chg.

% Chg

Gold

1,241.06

1,244.52

1,226.18

1,231.50

(9.56)

-0.77%

Silver

17.14

17.24

17.03

17.17

0.03

0.19%

Palladium

768.3

781.2

762.8

778.5

10.20

1.33%

Platinum

1,261.20

1,268.80

1,244.90

1,254.80

(6.40)

-0.51%

Copper

3.012

3.048

3.008

3.032

0.02

0.66%

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude has bounced off the 80.00 floor, which has produced a Piercing Line pattern on the daily. Yet the scope for upside follow-through from the reversal signal may be limited by overhanging resistance at 84.00. Alongside a core downtrend (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC) a daily close below the 80.00 barrier would be required to open the 2012 low near 77.00.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Break Below Psychologically-Significant Barrier

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold’s slide below the 1,241 mark has helped confirm an Evening Star formation which may warn of a deeper setback. Yet at this stage indications of a short-term uptrend remain intact (20 SMA, ROC). This leaves a greater alignment of indicators desired before suggesting a bearish bias for the precious metal.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bearish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Retreat From 1,257 Generates Warning Signal

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance and its retreat under the 17.30 floor has generated an Evening Star pattern. While typically a reversal signal from a preceding uptrend, the formation indicates the bears remain in control of the precious metal. This casts the immediate risk lower for a revisit of the 16.70 floor. Yet traders should be mindful that subdued negative momentum reflected by the ROC indicator suggests a clean descent may be difficult.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Casts Immediate Risks Lower

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s wild intraday swings have continued following a bounce from the 3.00/01 floor. Trend indicators are warning of a potential shift in sentiment. Yet the violent impulsive moves leave a clearer directional bias lacking.

Copper: Impulsive Swings Leave Clearer Signals Desired

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium’s recovery continues following a climb over the 23.6% Fib. Short-term trend indicators have also shifted (ROC and 20 SMA), suggesting positive sentiment is returning. Sellers are likely to return on a retest of the 38.2% Fib. near 800.

Palladium: Recovery Continues As Trend Indicators Turn Upwards

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to consolidate within the 1,242 to 1,289 range that has contained the precious metal over the past several weeks. With trend indicators swaying a breakout from the recent trading band would be desired to offer a clearer directional bias.

Platinum: Awaiting Breakout From Narrow Trading Band

WTI Bounces From 80.00 Floor, Gold Remains Vulnerable Ahead Of US Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES